When this tweet came across my timeline I did a double take. I couldn’t believe it. Alabama is very good, but 10-points better than every team in the nation on a neutral field good? That’s unheard of.
These are look ahead lines, so the limits are low. This could honestly be a publicity stunt by Golden Nugget to draw attention to their sportsbook (which has worked, taking that I am blogging about it).
It’s never as simple as comparing apples to apples when you look at two lines, but basic math can show us how these lines don’t make much sense.
Clemson was a 12 point favorite on the road at Texas A&M. That shows us that the betting market values Clemson as around 16 points better than Texas A&M on a neutral field. This weekend, Alabama is currently a 26-point home favorite over A&M, meaning on a neutral field they are around 22-point favorites. Again it’s not as simple as this, but looking at these situations, Alabama would most likely open as 6-7 point favorites over Clemson, not 11.5-point favorites.
If it was available to me, I’d take all of those underdogs. Just too much value. Yes, Alabama is the best team in the nation, but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves, even though Tua is some form of lifeform not from this earth:
The quarterback rating on those stats? 445.
FOUR HUNDRED FORTY-FIVE.