Thanksgiving is seen as the NFL’s holiday, but we do have ourselves a historic college football rivalry kicking off at 7:30 tonight. Mississippi State @ Ole Miss. Egg Bowl. I’d go as far to say these two fan bases hate each other more than any other two fan bases hate each other. Yes, more than Alabama & Auburn.
Last year we had DK Metcalf taking a piss on Starkvegas:
AJ Brown was yelling on the sideline:
Currently, the line sits at Mississippi State -12.5 with a total of 61. I hope my Turkey is served with a Cowbell, because I want ALL of Mississippi State minus the points.
The key for Mississippi State all year has been whether or not they are facing an elite defense. If they are? Fade them. If they are not? Take them minus the points.
PPG vs. top-30 defense: 7.8
PPG vs. non-top-30 defense: 42.4
Now, there’s going to be a difference for every offense when you look at something like that, but there’s a STARK (no pun intended) difference when you look at Mississippi State. What is Ole Miss putting out there? Just the 109th ranked S&P+ defense.
Ole Miss specifically struggles against the run (116th overall), a place Mississippi State strives (3rd). Nick Fitzgerald & Co. could put up BIG numbers tonight in a revenge spot.
Ole Miss has had an elite offense all year (8th in S&P+), but are incredibly banged up. QB Jordan Ta’amu isn’t 100%. RB Scottie Phillips isn’t 100%. DK Metcalf is out for the season. Guess who is waiting for them on the other side? Just the 5th ranked Mississippi State defense. Ole Miss runs the ball the 6th least in the country. That brings joy to Mississippi State’s top 5 pass defense.
You may turn your family on to you being a degenerate (why hide it? It’s 2018), but if you want to make some money tonight, turn off the NFL game and watch the Egg Bowl.
Pick: Mississippi State -12.5
Ill be back tomorrow previewing Friday’s games and of course, Saturday’s games.