UAB (-1.5, O/U 41.5) @ Northern Illinois, 7:00 PM, E***:
I think every college football fan has a soft spot for a few bowls out there. Maybe their team won it one year or they won a bet in a miraculous way another year. I have a soft spot for the Boca Raton Bowl. It’s the location that gets me. Something makes me laugh at the fact that there is a MAC-CUSA bowl game in Boca Raton, Florida. The end zones just say Boca Raton:
Boca Raton is a special place. In the middle of a wild state, you have a city that is populated by old (mostly Jewish) rich retirees, golfers, bodybuilders, Instagram models, and of course, LOADED college kids. I’ve visited a few times. It’s a great place if you ask me.
PMT recognized this and hosted the first-ever Boca Raton Ponzi Scheme Awareness Bowl:
Now, onto the game. We have two phenomenal defenses going head-to-head tonight. You can probably tell by the 41.5 total. UAB ranks 27th in S&P+ defense while NIU ranks 15th. On offense, both of these squads rank in the bottom 40 of the country. If you are looking for a lot of points tonight, don’t go looking in Boca Raton.
UAB’s offense is the better of the two. The passing and rushing offense both rank in the top 50. They’ll struggle to get a lot of points on the board, but Spencer Brown and AJ Erdely will get the horses going from the backfield. On the other side, I don’t see Northern Illinois doing much of anything. They rank 115th in offensive S&P+. The biggest advantage for UAB comes in attacking the QB. Through their 13 games, NIU’s adjusted sack rate on offense ranks 117th in the country! That’s 13th to last. UAB’s adjusted sack rate on defense ranks 3rd! Expect sacks, sacks, sacks from UAB tonight. 17-10 victory.
Jack Mac’s Stay In The Black Picks:
2018: 80-66-4, +6.75 units
Bowls: 1-1 (Leans: 1-2)
UAB/NIU Under 41.5