Football season is once again upon us and everyone is talking about Auburn vs. Oregon, Duke vs. Alabama and Notre Dame vs. Louisville. I’m talking about those things too. Hell, Brandon Walker and I spent a considerable amount of time debating whether the Utah State money line was a good play or a great play. But life is complicated. You have to be multi-dimensional. That’s why I’m also talking about the weather in Kansas City, Missouri today. I’ve got some money on precipitation totals in that city. Specifically, I’ve bet that it will not rain at all in Kansas City. How am I doing this, you ask? Through Cantor Exchange’s website, TradeWx.com.
It’s a website that allows you trade in “weather futures” for several days out. The further out you go, the cheaper the contracts and the more opportunity to profit. For instance, I bet the high temperature in Billings, Montana would be exactly 90 last Friday. Sure enough, the high was 90. That profited at about an equivalent of +170. I also bet there would be no rainfall in Minneapolis on Saturday and that hit as well, but profited less because I made the trade the day before.
You are given the forecasts from NOAA, Accuweather and the European model, but to be successful, I think you have to go local. I start by checking all the local ABC/NBC/CBS affiliates and seeing if there is a consensus. Next I check the airport’s website. That is where the National Weather Service monitors (except for NYC, where it’s Central Park), and ultimately is the deciding factor for if you are a winner or a loser. From there you check and see where the best prices are on the site and make your selection. Also, you can’t just bet layups, like there won’t be rain in Vegas tomorrow. You’ll want to play in the markets with the most action, because you’ll have the most variance and thus the highest chance to profit.
You can bet on high temperature, low temperature, rainfall, snowfall, and even landfall for tropical storms and hurricanes. Right now I’m watching this Tropical Storm Dorian, because if that son of a bitch gets close to the United States, we could make some real cash.
Either way, betting on the weather has added yet another dimension and platform for those of us who are constantly searching for more ways to gamble. Sometimes we get in a slump and can’t find our stride with the NFL, or College Football, or MLB….or the WNBA. When that happens, maybe throw on your meteorologist hat and take a stab at being Jim Cantore for a day. Go check it out, maybe bet on landfall of a deadly storm just to have some skin in the game, and pray for no rain in K.C. today.