Alright, we had a good weekend last week. Nothing to complain about at all over the last two weeks, in fact. Now, we did win three bets with the Titans/Jags last night, but we lost an absolute heartbreaker on the Houston game to Tulane. We have to turn that Houston/Tulane mojo around in a hurry. We start with the college slate tonight and roll straight into tomorrow. Let’s attack.
Utah (-3.5, Fri. 9:05pm ET) at USC
Tonight might well prove me wrong, but I don’t buy USC as a legit team. I think they’ve had their moments since the QB change, but overall, I don’t think they’re in the same class as Utah. Clay Helton in all likelihood needs to be replaced in order for USC to truly rebuild this thing. Utah is a legitimate PAC-12 championship contender and a team with an outside shot at a College Football Playoff berth. If they are really that team and they really want to make that run, they need this game.
THE PICK: Utah -3.5
Michigan State (-9, Sat. 12:05pm ET) at Northwestern
This game is going to be brutal to watch, but could be delightful to gamble on. Northwestern’s loss to Stanford looks worse now than it did then, but man, Michigan State…plain and simple, I don’t trust them to cover this number in conference on the road. There’s no chance I’m trusting them to lead by more than two scores at the end. Also, these offenses are prehistorically abysmal, which gives us a play on the total here as well. Let’s hit it twice.
THE PICKS: Northwestern +9, Under 38
LSU (-24, Sat. 12:05pm ET) at Vanderbilt
This game will be a rout. The Tigers will obliterate the Commodores. I don’t love laying 24 as a number, so I’m not going to do it. Rather I’m going to assume that LSU’s offense will continue to score points, but I will also bet that their incredible defense will continue to dominate and will limit the already limited Vanderbilt offense. I don’t think Vandy can hold up their end of the bargain for an over to hit in this one.
THE PICK: Under 62.5
Auburn at Texas A&M (-3.5, Sat. 3:35pm ET)
People are a little too high on Auburn. They got the dramatic win against Oregon, but they were thoroughly outplayed for the vast majority of that game. Now, they have to go on the road in a very tough environment. I don’t know that Bo Nix is ready for this one quite yet. He’s had his moments, but he is still a true freshman. I think the Aggies make a statement here.
THE PICK: Texas A&M -3.5
UCF (-11, Sat. 3:35pm ET) at Pittsburgh
UCF has been a steamroller early on in this season. They are winning, and putting up a shit load of points in the process. The Knights have been dominant and it doesn’t really matter who is under center for them. Pittsburgh played Penn State competitively and beat Ohio, but then lost to Virginia by sixteen at home and I firmly believe UCF is better than Virginia. I don’t think the Panthers can stop this UCF offense. It may be close early, but UCF pulls away.
THE PICK: UCF -11
Louisville at Florida State (-6.5, Sat. 3:35pm ET)
I will not play a side here. FSU has burned me a couple times this season already, and I’m not going to do it again. Having said that, I’m sure as hell not playing Louisville just yet either. The total here is appealing to me. I think Florida State will score a decent amount, probably into the low 30’s, but I don’t think Louisville, on the road, will be able to match that production. I think we get an under here.
THE PICK: Under 61
Wyoming at Tulsa (-3.5, Sat. 3:35pm ET)
This game is strange to me. I almost think Wyoming should be ranked at this point in the season. Tulsa, has been, mediocre. I know the game is in Oklahoma, but I still like the Cowboys here. I like them getting the points. But I also kind of like the money line with the ‘Pokes. Maybe I’m crazy, but I’ve been riding this train all season, I’m not stopping now.
THE PICK: Wyoming +3.5
Oklahoma State at Texas (-6.5, Sat. 7:35pm ET)
I won with Oklahoma State last weekend, this weekend, I go against them. The Cowboys were lucky to get out of Tulsa with a win as they played around with a weaker opponent for far too long. They can score, no doubt about that. But the defense leaves a lot to be desired. Texas, is a more well rounded team, and Sam Ehlinger does give them a slight edge offensively. I like Texas’ ability to run the ball and play a little defense to close out games though.
THE PICK: Texas -5.5
Alright, let’s get out there, have some fun, and cash these tickets, baby!