College Football Gambling Primer (52-36, +11.98 Units) Presented By PointsBet: Week 6
Schedule by @TrigDraws
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Barstool CFB Gambling Standings:
These picks are taken from blogs, Walk The Line, Rico’s newsletter, Unnecessary Roughness, tweets, and Pick Em Pod.
2019: 52-36, +11.98 units
2017-2018: 188-150-2 (55.6%), +23 units
Betting Process: For week 1-4, I create my own lines using my preseason projections which are a combination of 2018 results, 2019 returning production, recruiting rankings, and coaching staff rankings (HC, OC, and DC). I then compare them to the vegas lines and anything that is off by 5+ points, I bet. It’s a new approach, that I’ve found success in while backtesting in the offseason. We are in week 6 now, so I am starting to incorporate data from the 2019 season. I still have preseason projections within my projections, but this is a change from how I bet week 1-4.
I bet throughout the week and post them on Twitter if you want to keep along.
Picks:
UCF -3.5
Michigan -3.5
UCLA -5.5
NIU -5
Utah State +27.5
CMU +6.5
UAB -9.5
Kansas +32
South Florida -11
WMU +1.5
MTSU +4
Bowling Green +45.5
Air Force/Navy Under 46
Florida +3
I’m confused about what I’m supposed to be impressed with so far in Cincinnati’s season. A win over UCLA? Marshall? The closest they had to UCF competition was Ohio State and they got their DOORS kicked in.
UCF is a great team, who is still lacking in the public atmosphere based on their loss to Pitt. FEI still has them as a top 10 team. SP+ has them 14th. I say they stroll into Cincinnati tonight and destroy the Bearcats.
Pick: UCF -3.5
Everyone with a pulse is on Iowa.
After last week’s Akron debacle I don’t have a pulse, so it makes sense why I’m on Michigan.
Similar to UCF, MIchigan is still struggling getting bets from the public based off their loss to Wisconsin. That’s fair, because it was a BRUTAL loss. However, I’m not willing to give up on them just yet. They still rank 13th in SP+ and we came into the season knowing that every week would be better than the last with the new offense. Here we get them as a 3.5 point favorite at home with a lot to prove. I love betting on teams with the entire world against them.
Pick: Michigan -3.5
There’s some weird narrative going around that Oregon State is actually kind of good? That’s wrong. They rank 107th in FEI. Their defense is even worse, ranking 128th!! UCLA and Chip Kelly are going to tear this defense apart. Dorian Thompson-Robinson continues to improve every week and it doesn’t appear he will be missing this game with an injury. This is UCLA’s first home game in two weeks. Give me the Bruins in a ROUTE.
Pick: UCLA -6
LSU has Florida on deck. This week they have to take on Utah State at 12:00 with a dead Death Valley (see what I did there) crowd. It’s going to be hard to get up for this game knowing what is up next.
Utah State is no stranger to scoring, averaging 38.5 points a game. Against FBS competition, LSU’s defense is allowing 26.3 PPG. I could easily see Jordan Love, potential 1st round draft pick this year, putting up 28-31 points on LSU. Utah State will also be the best defense LSU has faced this year, ranking 31st in FEI. No team they’ve played has ranked in the top 50. 27.5 is too many points.
Pick: Utah State +27.5
Look ahead situation for Oklahoma with the Red River Shoout on tap. Kansas is also not that bad, ranking 84th in SP+. You don’t make money fading Oklahoma, but this week they may be getting a few too many points in Kansas this weekend. Their defense ranks 66th, which isn’t great, but good enough to hopefully keep Oklahoma to 49 points.
Pick: Kansas +32
Some guy DM’d me some interestinggggg rumors about the Northern Illinois team. Something about some player’s girlfriend sleeping with another two players. To be honest, I think it’s a troll job, so that makes me like my pick on Northern Illinois even more.
Pick: Northern Illinois -4.5
I hate this play, but it’s what the numbers say. It makes sense when you dig into it. Central Michigan has covered three straight, including a 17-12 loss @ Miami. Jim McElwain wasn’t fit for Florida, but he is still a good coach. They return home this weekend and are getting 6 points? Give me it.
Pick: Central Michigan +6
Rice. Stinks.
That’s it.
This line feels like the game is at Rice, but it’s not. I double-checked 100 times.
UAB may have lost at Western Kentucky last week, but they still rank 76th overall in FEI. Rice ranks 122nd. UAB rolls this weekend.
Pick: UAB -9.5
This game is bizarre. It is being played at 12 PM, but won’t be played on TV until 7 PM. Something to do with mosquitos in Connecticut. Who knows, Connecticut is the home of Lyme disease, so I’m not going to fuck with the mosquitos.
South Florida has had a tough start to the season, but UConn only getting 11 points at home? Is that a joke? UConn could’ve lost by 100 to UCF last week! They rank 127th in FEI. 123rd in SP+. This team STINKS out loud. South Florida is going to run them off the damn field with all their talent.
Pick: South Florida -11
Since 2005, unders are 33-8-1 (80%) when two military academies play (Army, Air Force, Navy).
Pick: Under 46
Toledo has NO right to be favored in this game. NONE.
FEI: WMU (51st). Toledo (92nd).
SP+: WMU (88th), Toledo (95th)
Western Michigan is the better team here. Out of principal, I will be taking WMU.
Pick: WMU +1.5