Alright, last week featured some tight games, from our gambling perspective. With the notable exception of the UMass debacle. That one was never close. Whatever, that was last week. This week’s slate just looks…juicy. Those weeks are always the scariest ones because usually when you see the board clearly, you’re wrong. But we can’t live life that way. We can’t live in the shadow fear. We have to commit to the games we love and do it with a fervor unknown to humans. That’s exactly what we’re doing this weekend. Let’s do it.
UCF (-3.5, FRI. 8pm ET) at Cincinnati
I know a lot of people are jumping on the Bearcats here. Primetime game, at home, against a big opponent. Not this guy. I’m not buying it. I watched Cincinnati barely beat a shitty UCLA team at home under the lights. I watched Cincinnati get blasted by Ohio State. I think they’re decent, but I think UCF is a team in a different class. I think they seize this opportunity and win big on the road.
THE PICK: UCF -3.5
Utah State at LSU (-27.5, Noon ET)
I love everything about the new look LSU offense. Joe Burrow looks awesome in their new system and LSU putting up 30+ a night makes them incredibly dangerous. Their defense, though, has taken something of a step back. They’ve been allowing more points than usual and that, I think, allows Jordan Love and Utah State to stay within this number. If anything this has back-door cover written all over it.
THE PICK: Utah State +27.5
Maryland (-13.5, Noon ET) at Rutgers
This game stinks. I hate that I’m going to bet it, because that means I will occasionally have to watch it. When I looked at the line I liked Maryland, but then Rutgers is playing for a new coach, with a new QB, that’s not a situation I want to mess with. What I do like here is the total. Rutgers can’t score. Maryland isn’t exactly prolific either. I don’t think we get near 56 in this one.
THE PICK: Under 56
Illinois at Minnesota (-14, 3:30 ET)
I think this number is simply too high. People are slowly coming around on Minnesota being undefeated at this point in the season. If you look back at those games, however, you will see a team that allowed their opponents to hang around far too long in games. Also Illinois has proven they can play tight games and they are off a bye week here. I think they give Minnesota all they can handle.
THE PICK: Illinois +14
Auburn (-3, 3:30pm ET) at Florida
Auburn has surpassed expectations to this point in the season. Bo Nix has been solid and they’ve done everything they needed to. But now the gauntlet really begins for them. This is a tough test. Nix, a true freshman, is about to go face a very good Florida defense on the road and he’s favored. I’m not super high on Florida, but I do think this is a spot where their defense might just win this thing for them outright.
THE PICK: Florida +3
Northwestern at Nebraska (-7.5, 4pm ET)
Neither of these teams has been very impressive. Northwestern has nobody who can play quarterback and Nebraska is vastly overrated. The one thing Northwestern can do is play defense. They do that pretty well. Nebraska’s defense has to be good enough to corral a pedestrian Wildcats offense. I don’t think there will be a lot of points scored here.
THE PICK: Under 49
UMass at Florida International (-27, 7pm ET)
Do I really have to explain this one? Really? UMass owns me now. JackMac brought that team together and now they have the look of a team of destiny. No chance I bet against them again this year. Give me the Minutemen.
THE PICK: UMass +27