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Temps are dropping and winds are rising. Let's toss on some sweats, sit on our ass, and watch guys who are way more athletic than us run the shit out of the ball in uncomfortable weather and win us some money.
Bills (6-2) @ Browns (2-6); Noon CT
Weather: 48 degrees and 12 mph winds
Pick #1: Nick Chubb Over 85 rushing yards
Chubb is coming off of his worst rushing performance of the year (65 yards at 3.3/rush), and now he’s got company in the backfield with the return of Kareem Hunt from his suspension for placekicking a woman. Let’s buy low.
What is the first thing you think about when it comes to the Bills? Other than a fan base with a penchant for table-breaking, dildo-throwing, and ass-eating, you think “defense.” I hate to break it to you, but this Buffalo run D is soft.
Through eight games, the Bills have faced only TWO opposing rushing offenses in the top half of the league. The Giants (10th in yards/rush) racked up 129 yards at 6.5 yards/rush in Week 2, and the Redskins (15th in yards/rush) dragged AP’s old balls for 108 yards at 6.0 yards/rush last week with no threat of a passing game (Haskins). Despite mostly playing against shitty rushing offenses, the Bills run D ranks in the bottom half of the league and is trending down drastically.
Approaching a Top-5 Cleveland rushing attack, there’s no wonder why the Bills picked DT Corey Liuget off the scrap heap after the Raiders released him 10 days ago. This stinks of desperation. Injuries have made Liuget a shell of his former self, but I can’t feel bad because he goes by “LEE-JIT” instead of “legit.” That’s a missed opportunity that I cannot forgive – what are you doing?
Buffalo’s mediocre offense won’t be able to break this game open, so Cleveland will be able to stay committed to the ground game. In double-digit winds, Chubb will see 20+ carries, so gaining 100+ yards should be a breeze against this Bills D. For a highly dysfunctional Browns team that has lost a TON of money for its backers this season (2-6 ATS), bet on the one constant – get Chubbed up for a tumescent cover.
Rams (5-3) @ Steelers (4-4); 3:25pm CT
Weather: 52 degrees and 10 mph winds
Pick #2: First Half Under 21
Action: 57% of bets on the Under, 54% of money on the Under
Back when the Bears were good (December 2018), they broke Jared Goff. You can point to Gurley’s declining health or the deterioration of the offensive line since, but Goff has never been the same. I touched on this earlier in the year, but when the defense disrupts a play from developing as designed, Goff shits himself. I don’t wanna go around making “Trubisky” accusations, but this is a Rams team trying to win games in spite of their QB, not because of their QB.
Knowing the disparity between the public’s Super Bowl nostalgia for the Rams vs. the current state of Goff’s play, I was completely ready to fade the Rams offense a few weeks ago. The problem was that they were facing the Falcons, who have an atrocious defense and no pass rush – this was not a good spot (Rams won 37-10). Then I looked to the following week, and the Rams were matched up against the pathetic Bengals – again, not a good spot (Rams won 24-10).
But this week, the Rams finally face a pass rush in a Pittsburgh defense that has rounded into Top-10 form since acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick to secure the back end. Watt, Dupree, and Heyward will keep Goff uncomfortable all day at Heinz Field. McVay knows this, and especially with Brandin Cooks out, McVay will want to lean on the run game and keep everything in front of Goff – short, quick, and easy over the middle of the field. This clock is gonna run.
And I don’t really need to break down the Steelers offense, right? Over 60% of Mason Rudolph’s passing yards are coming after the catch. That’s impossibly bad. Are we all good here? Ok cool.
Panthers (5-3) @ Packers (7-2); 3:25pm CT
Weather: 32 degrees and 10 mph winds
Pick #3: Panthers +5.5
Action: 62% of bets on the Packers, 58% of money on the Packers
I bet against the Pack in their no-show against the Chargers last week, and I’m back for more. That loss was not a blip on the radar – Green Bay has further to fall.
Remember when we thought the Packers defense was good? It turns out that holding the Bears to 3 points in the season opener wasn’t exactly impressive. The Packers now rank 25th in yards/rush allowed and 26th is yards/pass allowed. Neither stat is good, but against the Panthers this week, the run D is the primary concern.
Christian McCaffrey is a goddamn stud. Aside from leaving me sexually confused, on a less personal note he leads all running backs by averaging 155 rushing + receiving yards/game, and the sick thing is that he has accomplished this despite facing a murderers’ row of opposing rushing defenses. The Packers are unquestionably his easiest competition this year, so Run CMC is gonna go the fuck off.
I’m not saying that the Packers offense won’t get theirs, but the Carolina D doesn’t exactly play to their strengths. Carolina ranks Top-5 against the pass and Bottom-5 against the run. Oddly enough, if Rodgers wants to win this game, he’ll need to hand the ball off 30+ times to a backfield that ranks 20th in yards/rush. As someone betting against the Packers, I can live with this. Green Bay will find success on the ground, but they won’t be able to run up the score with explosive plays through the air. This will keep the game within reach for Carolina to stay committed to McCaffrey. Getting 5.5 points, this is a winning recipe for a Carolina ticket.
And let's just say that the Packers take a double-digit lead. The Green Bay D allows over 17 yards/completion, which is by far the worst in the league. They routinely give up BIG plays through the air. Kyle Allen isn't sexy, but Norv and Scott Turner will be able to draw up some deep throws off of play-action for quick scores to keep this one close. Lastly, let’s look at this from a pure line movement perspective. The line opened at GB -7, but it moved to GB -5.5 despite the majority of bets falling on the public Packers. The sharp money is with Carolina, and so am I.
With the holiday tomorrow, I’m sending love and appreciation to our veterans – thank you for your service.
Let’s have a day!