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YTD: 69-64-4 (can we get a winner, please?)
Ohio State +2.5
Under 111 Boston College/Virginia
Over 148.5 Villanova/Creighton
Over 136 Syracuse/Virginia Tech
Texas Tech -3.5
I'm trusting my gut here and my belief that Ohio State is simply a better team than Maryland. More importantly three key things. One, Ohio State's wings can take away Maryland's backcourt and really bother Anthony Cowan into turnovers. Second, Kaleb Wesson could and should destroy Jalen Smith and then take control when they sub in Chol Marial. Third, Chirs Holtmann is just a way better coach than Mark Turgeon and I trust him to make adequate in-game adjustments on the fly if needed. Yeah, Ohio State hasn't looked great recently which is the perfect time to stay in a close game.
Pick: Ohio State +2.5
So you're telling me Virginia's below average offense going up against BC's above average defense and BC's terrible defense going up against Virginia's great defense is going to go over 111? I'm not seeing it. Virginia obviously wants to control tempo and they do that better than anyone else in the country. Neither team can shoot the ball which means they have to work for better shots. I'll live with Virginia unders, they seem to work.
Pick: Under 111
Temple is coming off a roughly 100 point loss at Tulsa. The best recipe to bounce back? Come back home where Temple is actually really good. My fear is Temple creating enough offense against Houston's decent defense, but Temple can take away what Houston does best. Temple's wings are undervalued and think they can bother Houston enough defensively with the thought process of a bounce back here at home.
Pick: Temple +2.5
A little stat courtsey of my guy Rob Dauster at NBC Sports. Since Creighton has joined the Big East the only time these two teams didn't go over 148 was in 2015 when the score was 76-72. Remember, Creighton is coming off a terrible shooting day at Butler (an awesome defense) and now they come home against Nova, who doesn't force turnovers, defends the three okay but gives up a bunch of decent looks inside the arc. I still LOVE Creighton's guards and that trio led by Marcus Zegarowski. They are going to putt Nova in a bunch of screens, which they switch everything on, and look for that mismatch.
Pick: Over 148.5
The pace in this game does worry me a bit. However, both teams shoot a ton of threes and Virginia Tech's a solid 3pt shooting team. Throw in that Syracuse doesn't have the typical length in that zone and those looks become easier to find. Syracuse is 5-2 to the over if the number was 135 for their 7 high major games. That has to mean something, right? Guaranteed most of those teams don't play as slow as Virginia Tech, both teams give up a million looks from three while shooting in the top-60 in the country.
Pick: Over 136
Do I love this Baylor team? Absolutely. I think they are one of the 5, maybe 6 best teams in the country. But you know what I love more? Historical numbers. Chris Beard has beaten Baylor every year in Lubbock and the average margin of victory has been 17.5 and none closer than 6. Not to mention this Texas Tech team has been hot as of late mostly due to getting healthy. They have the win over Louisville and a 35-point win over Oklahoma in the last month. I actually love the way Texas Tech matches up against Baylor with the plethora of guards/wings that can switch everything. Let's trust Chris Beard (a top-5 coach) at home.
Pick: Texas Tech -3.5
There are a bunch of other games I like but going to stay away from. That's a little something I like to call growing up. But I would lean under 144 in Louisville/Miami, Ole Miss -3 and Florida -4.5. Again, not touching those but just where I'd lean if you want some more action.