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YTD: 72-73-5 (I'll never forgive Syracuse/Virginia for hitting the over and Louisville -3. I promise you that)
Over 153 Creighton/Georgetown
Florida State -6.5
Under 144.5 Xavier/Marquette
Under 129.5 Seton Hall/Butler
This number is a bit high, no doubt about it. But here's why I'm on the over. Georgetown is AWFUL at guarding the three. It's actually kind of shocking with Ewing's NBA background. They are 296th in 3PA/FGA and 271st in 3pt percentage defense. Creighton is one of the best shooting teams in the country. So you're giving me that defense, even at home, against an unreal shooting team? This game is going to have a ton of possessions too as both teams are top-65 in average possession length.
Pick: Over 153
I'm in full on fade Virginia mode right now. Is that going to bite me in the ass? Absolutely. But they simply can't score on offense. There's a reason they rank 229th in the country offensively. Now they travel to Florida to play against a great Florida State defense? I'm not quite sure how they get to 50 unless they shoot the shit out of the ball, something they really can't do. FSU forces turnovers. They have enough guys that can attack. I'll take the 6.5 at home.
Pick: Florida State -6.5
I actually like the way Xavier can match up with Marquette and more importantly the way they can defend Markus Howard. They have 4 different looks they can give Marquette - KyKy Tandy, Quentin Goodin, Paul Scruggs and Naji Marshall should all have a chance to defend Howard. The other thing? Marquette's defense is shockingly decent while Xavier's offense is a mess, especially shooting the ball. This one could turn into a rock fight.
Pick: Under 144.5
I kind of think Alabama wins this game outright. But, I'm going to take the points at home in a rivalry game here. They are currently playing their best basketball and can match what Auburn wants to do in terms of running up and down the court and jacking some shots. They have the guard play to at least match Auburn and the depth to play with them. It also just feels like Auburn is due for a loss at some point.
Pick: Alabama +1.5
This line as moved from Stanford -2 to UCLA -1 and I'm quite confused. Am I going to read the wrong thing on this? Probably. But, here's what I know. Stanford is actually a decent team. UCLA still has a ton of work to do. All the analytics say this should be a game that Stanford wins between 5-10 points. Stanford has a top-12 defense, they shoot the shit out of the ball and UCLA really struggles defensively this year. Again, what am I missing here?
Pick: Stanford +1