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YTD: 79-80-5 (another .500 day on Saturday thanks to Stanford's collapse. Due for a win soon, right?)
Iowa State -6
Ole Miss +6.5
I know LSU is undefeated in conference play and I've sworn off Florida no less than 10 times this year, but I like chasing a high. Here's why. Florida has moved more to a 2-big lineup, limiting minutes of some guys like Scottie Lewis. More importantly, in this game, LSU thrives on offensive rebounding. The two-big look negates that, especially since Blackshear and Payne are good rebounders. I know Florida has Baylor on Saturday and this is a look ahead spot in a way, but LSU plays a million close games a year and Florida is starting to figure it out, again.
Pick: Florida +3
Does Northwestern suck? Yep. They sure do. But you know what else is bad? Mark Turgeon on the road. He hasn't won this year, he's 43-45-1 ATS on the road since he took over Maryland. I know Northwestern is just 6-11 ATS this year and most of that is when they catch double digits but 7.5 feels way too low. Plus, Big 10 home games appear to still be a thing. In what's going to be a low scoring game, I'll roll with the points.
Pick: Northwestern +7.5
I know Butler lost two in a row, but I'm not wavering from them just yet. On the other hand, Nova has been a bit weird. Yes, they are winning games but they are sort of morphing into last year's team with more potential. By that I mean that they are relying so much on Collin Gillespie and Saddiq Bey like they did Eric Paschall and Phil Booth last year. Now they have guys like JRE, Justin Moore and Jermaine Samuels that can show up and win you a game, but Butler takes away what teams want to do better than anyone in the country. I wish I got this at 4 or 4.5 but with the hook we'll rely on a one-possession game.
Pick: Butler +3.5
Oklahoma State has lost 5 in a row, none closer than 7. Iowa State is returning home and we all know that Hilton is an unreal place to play. I just think Tyrese Haliburton is that much of a mismatch and that great of a player. The other key here? Oklahoma State is one of the most turnover prone teams in the country while Iowa State is 30th in the country in forcing turnovers. We're just trusting that home Iowa State shows up here.
Pick: Iowa State -6
Ole Miss is struggling, losing 4 in a row, so what's the responsible thing to do? Take Ole Miss getting the points. I actually think these teams somewhat mimic each other in makeup, but I trust Ole Miss guards. They have the best player on the floor in Breein Tyree and Tennessee is still relying on a freshman in Santiago Vescovi. I'm not saying Ole Miss is going to win this game, just that 6.5 feels a bit too much for Tennessee, even at home.
Pick: Ole Miss +6.5