YTD: 86-88-5 (2020 has not been kind after a hot start. This is some bullshit and that's what I'll chalk it up to)
Mississippi State +7
Tennessee at Alabama (-5/146)
I know Alabama is without Herb Jones, but Nate Oats has this team rolling. More importantly there's a chance that Josiah-Jordan Jones misses tonight's game for Tennessee. They are already a bit shorthanded and relying on young guys. Now they are playing a team in Alabama that wants to force tempo and launch threes. Not the best recipe, especially on the road. Not only that, but Tennessee can get real stagnant on offense. Not exactly shocking when you have this roster turnover, but it is what it is right now.
Pick: Alabama -5
Monmouth at Fairfield (+1/130.5)
I'm going against most things I believe in here and taking a road team giving points. Why? Monmouth NEEDS to win this game in order to stay on top of the MAAC standings. Also, Fairfield has just been average at home, so we're not talking Big 10 home team advantage here. If you look just in conference play, Fairfield is dead last in effective field goal percentage offensively and 8th out of 11 in 2pt defensive. We'll play the need to win angle here.
Pick: Monmouth -1
Xavier at DePaul (PK/138)
Prime let down spot here for Xavier. They are coming off the massive win at Seton Hall, which really turned around how we're looking at their season. Now they have to head to Chicago to play a DePaul team that actually is talented? I'll take that. I was hoping that somehow Xavier would give a point here, but we'll live with the PK. Xavier's shooting is still inconsistent and want to attack with wings Paul Scruggs and Naji Marshall. The biggest strength for DePaul? Athletic wings. DePaul is 1-8 in conference play, with only loss coming from double digits. Water has to find its level at some point with them.
Pick: DePaul PK
Mississippi State at Kentucky (-7/140.5)
Alright, let's talk about it. This game terrifies me. Why? Reggie Perry. That guy alone is a complete mismatch for Kentucky. EJ Montgomery has been better the last few games, especially defensively but he has too many times where he gets lost. If not him you're looking at Nate Sestina guarding Perry? That's a huge mismatch as Sestina has been a mess defensively, especially against guys like Perry. This could be a showcase game for Kentucky coming home after a loss and Cal owns Mississippi State, but 7 points feels a lot here, especially with a mismatch. Mississippi State has won 5 of 7 and the two losses are by a combined 2 points. I need to see a good game out of Ashton Hagans. He hasn't been right the last 3 and Kentucky's at its best when he's breaking guys off the dribble and being a menace defensively. Not to mention, MSU is the best offensive rebounding team in the conference. Go win this game Cats and give me a bullshit backdoor cover.
Pick: Mississippi State +7