YTD: 89-98-5 (Just a complete mess since the turn of the calendar. Just a complete mess)
Under 129.5 Butler/Xavier
Under 134 WVU/Kansas
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +10
Xavier at Butler (-5.5/129.5)
There might not be a better team in the country at taking away what you want to do offensively than Butler. They just disrupt a ton of stuff and the ability to switch with their wings makes them awesome defensively. Xavier lives on defense. They have the same sort of makeup - athletic wings that can switch and a longer lead guard. The big reason I like the under here? Tyrique Jones who has been fucking awesome lately has been crushing the offensive glass. Butler is the 43rd best team in the country on the defensive glass. Limit possessions, hit the under.
Pick: Under 129.5
Creighton at Seton Hall (-6/147)
Ultimately it comes down to this. Creighton has been the best 3pt shooting team in the conference during Big East play. Seton Hall has been the best 3pt defensive team in the country. I'm playing this as a bit of a letdown spot after Seton Hall went to Nova and got a win for the first time in 26 years. Also, Creighton is closer to a top-15 team than I think most realize. They have the guards to attack from the outside, something we saw Nova do when they made the comeback in the 1h with Romaro Gill out.
Pick: Creighton +6
Kansas at WVU (-1/134)
Kansas on the road has scored 70 points just twice - 72 at Stanford and 79 at Iowa State. Other than typically every game is played in the low to mid-60s. Now you're giving me a WVU team at home with the bigs to play against Udoka Azubuike and I'll take that. They played earlier this year (a 7 point win at Phog), Azubuike had 17 and 11 but also 5 turnovers. I'm focusing more on that 2nd part here in Morgantown where the whistle tends to be different than Lawrence. Since moving to the Big 12, WVU is 5-2 at home against Kansas.
Pick: WVU -1/Under 134
Marquette at Villanova (-4/145.5)
Nova on a 3-game losing streak and Marquette playing like a top-10 team, well here we go. It's time to take Nova at home on Ryan Arcidicano jersey retirement day. Here's my other thing. Nova can toss a handful of different looks on Markus Howard - who has been just unreal over the last 2 months. They can throw Gillespie, Moore and even Bey on him. Both teams are actually great defensively at running teams off the 3pt line. Give me the home team.
Pick: Villanova -4
UConn at SMU (-5/135.5)
You're gonna want to sit down for this UConn fans. You guys actually have looked ... average! See I can say nice things about you. It also helps that James Bouknight is going to be a star for UConn and has already turned into the guy for them as a freshman who missed the start of the season. I know UConn is coming off the OT win vs Cincinnati so this can be a letdown spot for sure. However, the best home win SMU has is Temple. UConn just won at Tulsa and during the run where they look better have road losses by 6 to Nova, 4 to Houston and 7 to Memphis. I can't wait to see a Danny Hurley meltdown at some point.
Pick: UConn +5
Michigan at Northwestern (+5.5/137)
Michigan is 9-3 with Isaiah Livers in the lineup. Those wins are all pretty damn impressive too - Gonzaga, Creighton, Iowa, Michigan State, UNC when everyone thought they were good. Northwestern meanwhile is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 home games. Michigan with Livers is just a completely different team. He's their best shooter. He's their best defender. That all matters. More importantly he lets them go with a versatile lineup that I don't know how NW matches. I don't love road favorites, but I like this Michigan team with Livers.
Pick: Michigan -5.5
Nevada at UNLV (-1/149.5)
This is strictly a Nevada stinks on the road, UNLV is good at home play. Nevada, despite having a legit star in Jalen Harris, is 1-7 straight up in road games. That includes a loss to San Jose State, who is the 273rd ranked team in the country. Bryce Hamilton vs Jalen Harris is going to be a ton of fun to watch.
Stephen F. Austin at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (+10/131.5)
That's right. We're going low major and not taking the team that beat Duke. TAMCC already won at SFA this year. Now they are getting 10 at home. The biggest fear? TAMCC is 351st at turning the ball over and SFA is legit the best team in the country at forcing turnovers. They had 21 turnovers in the 1-point win and went 10-for-17 from three. That actually can happen again - TAMCC ranks 42nd in 3pt percentage. Let's get weird.
Pick: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +10