YTD: 101-110-5 (Time to get hot before March. I miss November and December.)
Florida State -1
Gonzaga/BYU over 157.5
Boston College +4
Note: Just a quick note, today's slate is perfect. We need more Saturday's like this. We have big games spread out throughout the day instead of what we've gotten lately - everything early and nothing late. The best part is each TV block is highlighted by a game - Kansas/Baylor at noon, X/Nova at 2:30, Florida State/NC State at 4, UK/Florida at 6, Arizona/Oregon at 9 and Gonzaga/BYU at 10. It's perfect. We needed more Saturday's like this.
Kansas at Baylor (-2/127)
Alright, game of the day here without a doubt. One of the weird things in the Big 12 is the Saturday/Monday combo. That's what Kansas had this past week. However, the extra day is MASSIVE for Bill Self. The one thing Self is great at is preparing when he has time like this. In the first game what Baylor (who I do think is the best team in the country) did was cut the floor in half on defense and front Udoka Azubuike. It's damn impressive what they did. However, the biggest reason for the ass kicking in Lawrence was Kansas missed a ton of shots. Marcus Garrett has been a completely different player lately and that's the key here. It's as simple as Kansas making shots. It also just feels like Baylor is due for a loss at some point. The other thing to keep an eye on is if Kansas is able to get out and run - that's where Devon Dotson is at his best.
Pick: Kansas +2
Michigan at Purdue (-2.5/133)
Purdue is statistically the best home team in the country. That seems important. Almost as important as the health of Isaiah Livers. He's the key for Michigan and what Michigan wants to do. He's probably their best shooter, he is their best defender and he lets them run that small ball lineup where they can set a high ball screen for Zavier Simpson and surround him with shooters. These two teams already played a classic earlier this year where Trevion Williams went off for Purdue. He can give them troubles - Michigan has struggled with post guys in the Big 10. Plus it's Robbie Hummel Hall of Fame weekend. You don't lose on Robbie Hummel Hall of Fame weekend.
Pick: Purdue -2.5
Wofford at Furman (-8.5/140)
Another AWESOME SoCon game. Seriously, watch the top-4 in the SoCon, they are damn good and have a real chance to be a multi-bid league. Wofford gave us an OT cover earlier this week when they lost at UNC-Greensboro. Now they go to Furman, a team they beat earlier this year by 14. Here's the one thing to watch. Wofford still wants to shoot a ton of threes. Furman will give up a ton of looks from three, BUT from a percentage standpoint they are decent. Again, Wofford takes care of the ball too. That's key with Furman being a top-25 team in the country at forcing turnovers.
Pick: Wofford +8.5
Florida State at NC State (+1/145.5)
Can you scream letdown spot? Because that's what I'm screaming here. NC State just kicked Duke's ass. They stormed the court. Coach K did Coach K things. Kevin Keatts was up in the middle of the night giving a speech to kids partying in the streets. Now they have to turnaround and play another of the top-3 ACC teams? Even at home, it's a letdown spot. Here's the other thing. NC State is kinda made to beat Duke. You beat Duke by spreading them out, putting Vernon Carey in ball screens and attacking Matthew Hurt too. Florida State matches up pretty well against NC State, especially to slow down Markell Johnson.
Pick: FSU -1
Gonzaga at BYU (-4.5/157.5)
A little interested as to why this line dropped QUICK - opening at 162 and down to 157.5. Assuming everyone plays (looking mostly at you Killian Tillie) this game should be awesome. BYU has been hot as of late and the way they want to beat you is push tempo as much as possible, getting threes or to the rim. They are the best shooting team in the country, ranking 42% from three. They also have that 1-2 combo with Haws and Childs as inside/outside duo. Gonzaga will put you in a million screens before Putresev gets you at the rim. Plus we'll be up late, so let's have some points.
Pick: Over 157.5
North Carolina at Louisville (-9/145)
Louisville seems to have figured shit out, beating the hell out of Syracuse. It all comes down to this for Louisville. Play David Johnson as much as possible and hope Jordan Nwora remembers he should be an All-American. Luckily, UNC isn't good. Chris Mack runs the Pack Line defense, which forces you to hit shots. UNC is one of the worst shooting teams in the country. Literally doesn't matter the spot they are shooting from, they are bad at it.
Pick: Louisville -9
Georgia Tech at Syracuse (-4/142.5)
Syracuse has lost 5 of 6. They just got their ass kicked by Louisville. Georgia Tech has won 5 of 6 (although one win was over Morehouse). We saw Syracuse go to Atlanta and beat the hell out of Georgia Tech early in the year and there's a reason for that. Syracuse's zone gives Georgia Tech a ton of problems. They aren't made to beat the 2-3 zone. They don't shoot well, they turn it over a ton and they are just an average offensive rebounding team. Cuse needs to win at home.
Pick: Syracuse -4
Clemson at Boston College (+4/128)
Georgia at Vanderbilt (+3/150)
I'm not going to talk about these games separately because it's as simple as this. Shitty teams are getting points at home playing a team coming off a big win. Clemson beat Louisville and had a week off .. Georgia just beat Auburn. Nothing else to it. Just playing that spot. Plus betting on shitty teams is always a joy.