Round 1 is complete and our #EnEffElDraft coverage was a great thrill for me. I thoroughly enjoyed it, despite being duped and misreporting a pick, it was a tremendous experience for me. What has gone under the radar is my Draft Prop Bets went 7-3 yesterday including hitting a +600 pick on Henry Ruggs landing with the Raiders.
So I figured I’d put out a Day 2 blog to help my gambling pals out. I should caveat my percentage is certain to go down as there are fewer props available for Day 2. But there are some solid value plays. If I can hit on one of the bottom three picks, you'll have made your money.
RB D’Andre Swift Over/Under 39.5
UNDER – 117
This is a tough one because Swift is most evaluator’s top Runningback. LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a surprise as the top Back taken, but will be a dynamic weapon for Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Looking at picks #33-#38, all those teams have established Runningbacks with the exception of Detroit who took one out of Auburn two years ago in Round 2. So this is really looking at Miami at #39 and if they take him. The Fins have been linked to Swift for most of the process, so I do think he’s the pick here at #39. Tight one, but I’ll go under.
QB Jalen Hurts Over/Under 55.5
In the game of Quarterback musical chairs, there just aren’t enough seats for all these signal callers. You see talented QBs like Cam Newton and Jameis Winston not even being on a roster at the moment. We also had three chairs filled yesterday with QB needy teams like the Bengals, Dolphins, & Chargers taking a QB. The Packers also took Jordan Love but he doesn’t figure to start right away. Pittsburgh is certainly a chance at #49, but I think that’s a bit rich for Hurts unless they really do view him as next in line once Big Ben calls it a career. Chicago at #50 or even the Rams at #52 if they’re looking to use him in a Taysom Hill type role could be possibilities, but none strong enough for me to bypass this pick. Take the over here.
Texans Drafting a Cornerback with their 1st pick: +300
The Texans need help desperately in their secondary and there are still three CBs still in my top 50 available (Utah’s Jaylon Johnson, Alabama’s Trevon Diggs, and LSU’s Kristian Fulton). The Texans first pick in this draft is #40, which is the pick they dealt DeAndre Hopkins for. While they need help at WR, they did address that in Free Agency while they haven’t added any Corners. I like the value here at +300 and I’m expecting a run on Corners around this time. Book it +300.
Patriots Drafting a Tight End with their 1st pick: +400
The Pats have been long linked to drafting a Tight End high, especially now that their former TE, the best one of all-time is playing for my team in Tampa Bay. They didn’t replace Gronk last year and it showed on the field. Notre Dame’s Cole Kmet had been a name linked to them a lot in recent days and he’ll likely still be on the board when they’re on the board at #37. And if they trade down again, I still like them to take a TE, so safer play and good value at +400.
Steelers Drafting an Offensive Lineman with their 1st pick: +400
The Steelers need to protect Big Ben who is returning from surgery. They also lost longtime mainstay Ramon Foster to retirement and their top need is an Interior Offensive Lineman. They don’t pick until #49 but that matches up with where some good Lineman will be available. I like both Guard Robert Hunt out of Louisiana for them as well as Center/Guard Lloyd Cushenberry.
*All odds provided by Penn National Gaming