Tough loss on M'Gladbach -152 today. I still think we were on the right side thanks to them dominating possession (65%), having 18 shots, winning the xG battle (2.33-1.60), and being on the receiving end of a controversial red card. Sometimes you just get beat, but if the process is there? You keep going.
Frankfurt -105: We bet on these guys midweek and the result was magnificent. A 3-0 win over Werder Bremen, now they return home to play Mainz. Since returning from the COVID-19 break, Frankfurt has had the 2nd most expected goals. The team with the most expected goals against since the return? Their opponent Mainz. Frankfurt's defense isn't fantastic, but we saw them lockdown Werder Bremen, a squad with a very similar offense to Mainz (by similar, I mean BAD).
Hoffenheim pk -121: Dusseldorf just isn't very good. They come into this game in 16th place, which would put them in a potential relegation playoff. Their entire 2019-20 campaign hasn't been great, even while playing at home, where they've allowed 0.83 more goals than scored from an xG perspective. Hoffenheim isn't anything special, but they have been playing well since their return from COVID (7.69 - 5.84 xG). I could see a draw here, so I'm playing it safe with the Asian line.
Leverkusen +1.25 (-108): Bayern is the better team. They've been on fire since their new manager has come in, but Leverkusen kind of has their number. Leverkusen hasn't lost to Bayern since 2018! They are at home for this one against the presumptive winner of the Bundesliga, but this game is incredibly important for Leverkusen if they could somehow force a draw and push themselves inside the top 4.
Hertha Berlin +1.5 (-120): Another team that has been playing phenomenal since the break. The team has really taken a step forward since Bruno Labbadia has taken over. Dortmund's attack found the back of the net 6 times last weekend, but Hertha's defense has been a top 4 side since we've returned from break. I could see a 1-0, 2-1 game.
Hertha Berlin +1.5 (-120)
Leverkusen +1.25 (-108)
Hoffenheim pk -121
Parlay (+117): Dortmund -278/Bayern Munich -235/Leipzig -835
Soccer: 28-29-1, -2.78 units
Bundesliga: 15-15, -0.10 units
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