Ryan Newman -125 vs. Matt Kenseth: Newman has been great at Dega the past 2 years. He has an average finish of 10.25, with 1 T5 and 3 T10. Kenseth has raced Dega 36 times, with an average finish of 19th. Newman starts 14th, just behind Kenseth, who starts 13th.
Ricky Stenhouse -135 vs. William Byron: Talladega has never been kind to William Byron. In the past 2 years, Byron has had an average poll position of 13th, but ended 26th on average. Ricky Stenhouse, on the other hand, has shown us he loves Talladega, in his 13 races here he has had an average poll position of 12.75 and finished 11th. Over the last 2 years, Stenhouse has had 2 T5's.
Joey Logano -115 vs. Ryan Blaney: I mainly bet matchups, but if I had to bet the winner of this race it would be Logano. Blaney did win at Talladega in October, but outside of that? He hasn't been phenomenal at Talladega. Since switching to Team Penske, he has finished 18th, 15th, 29th, and 1st. Logano's last 5 races at Talladega: 11th, 4th, 5th, 1st, 4th.
Austin Dillon -125 vs. Matt Dibenedetto: Take a look at Dibenedetto's history at Talladega:
Yikes. Dillon has gone 17th, 14th, and 6th in his last 3 races here. He ran great last week too.
Ricky Stenhouse -105 vs. Jimmie Johnson: You have to go back to May 2016 to find a race at Talladega where Ricky Stenhouse didn't have an accident and didn't finish top 10. Jimmie has struggled at Dega in past years, thanks to a 33rd and 38th place finish. His driver rating has been an average of 72.5, which places him behind 19 other drivers.
I only play matchups, but here are some other plays to consider.
Joey Logano +750 To Win: Joey is the best driver at Talladega over the last four years according to driver rating and average finish. This is his race to lose.
Aric Almirola +350 To Finish Top 5: Since February 2018, there are two guys with an average finish inside the top 10 at Talladega. Joey Logano and Aric Almirola.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +130 To Finish Top 10: Ricky is another guy that has been great at Talladega. Since February 2018, Stenhouse has an average finish of 10.5. That number would be much lower if it wasn't for an accident in April 2019.
#MACSCAR: 20-16, +3.7 units on the 2020 season