Wolves/Aston Villa u2.25 (-115): Aston Villa has had a decent restart, specifically on defense. Their xGA against Sheffield, Chelsea, and Newcastle: 0.36, 1.40, 0.79. This is a big improvement for their defense that allowed the most xG in the league before the restart. Wolverhampton has had a great restart with 6 points, which have been much needed in their race to making the Champions League. Although they have had 2 wins, Wolverhampton has averaged just 1 xG per game, but they've allowed to 0.28 xG per game. I expect Wolverhampton to win, but don't like laying -140ish on the road on short rest. I do think Villa is going to park the bus and don't really see them scoring. I could even see a 0-0 draw thanks to Villa trying to escape with 1 point as they continue in their relegation battle.
Genoa +128: Brescia is at the bottom of the Serie A table. They've been relatively unlucky, but their expected points in the 2019-20 campaign still put them in the relegation zone. In their 2 games back since COVID, they've scored just 0.94 xG per game while allowing over 2 xG against middle of the table competition. I bet on Genoa earlier this week and lost, but their 4-1 loss does not show us what happened on the pitch. The xG on that game was Genoa 2.12 - Parma 2.04. Before that game, they took down AC Milan and have been a much better team this entire season outside of where they sit in the table (17th actual, 12th expected).
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