Alright so the other day I meticulously and correctly broke down that the answer to this question......
.......is the free throw.
Well, it's a copy cat league, folks. So now let's give another sport a try. Here's the golf question making it's way around Twitter:
Wooof. First thing that jumps off the page to me is the opportunity to make FIVE MILLION dollars. The commenters did not change my mind on my basketball blog, but if any of them got me to re-contemplate my decision, it was this guy.
Fair point. How many legitimate shots do you get at a milly in your lifetime? You have to take it when you can. That'd be like getting the opportunity to move to New York and work full-time at Barstool Sports, only to settle with a part-time job because you like coaching girls basketball too much. Jump at the opportunity when you can!
Anyways, Admiral, you make a strong argument. But I don't think it holds the same water here. A corner 3 pointer is very doable. I think I said I would make it 25% of the time. A 1 in 4 chance of getting a million? I see your point. But a 50 foot putt? I might never make one of those. I could go hit 100 fifty foot putts right now and not sink one. So I don't consider this an "opportunity". Unless you consider playing the lottery an opportunity. The $5 fifty foot putt is a sucker bet. And anyone saying that's what they'd choose is a sucker. You probably do 10-team college football parlays and just barely miss each week, too.
So now here's the question: is 20 feet too much? I'm not Mr. Confident on the golf course like I was with my shooting ability. In fact, I suck at golf. Especially putting. So again, I think 20 feet is all luck, while the others are not. As much as I want a chance at a million, I'm getting rid of this option, too. There is money to be had here if you don't get greedy.
A 10-footer for $250K is very, very tempting. You still need to be either really good or really lucky to make a 10 foot putt. But my goodness, you don't feel like you're out on an island like you would from 20 feet away. And I officially consider $250,000 a "life changing" amount of money. You could buy a house with that. Remember, I'm writing this from a 3 person apartment in middle of nowhere Ohio. A house in the suburbs for $240,000 would mean I've officially made it. And I'd still have $10,000 to get a nice, pre-owned 2016 Honda Civic with 75,000 miles on it. Holy smokes, I'd be the Wolf of Wall Street around here.
But unfortunately, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. And I do not consider a 10 foot putt a bird in the hand. I do, however, think that anyone with an athletic bone in their body could easily knock down a putt inside 5 feet. Could they miss it? OF COURSE. But it's very, very doable compared to the other options. It's the first one where I'd take even odds and bet on myself to make it.
Now personally, I think I could miss a 3 footer just as easily as I could miss a 5 footer. I consider them both easy, and I know I could miss either on any hole. But the degree of difficulty is the same to me. But the reward? $100K is WAY more than $50K. In fact, some would say it's 2x more money.
My answer, and the correct answer, is to take the 5 footer for $100,000.