Winner: Since NASCAR has returned, Kevin Harvick has been beyond dominant. He's won 4 races and has had more top 5 finishes than not. He sits at 5/1 right now, but I would advise to proceed with caution. He has had 6 top 10 finishes at Kentucky Speedway, but only 1 top 5 finish and no victories.
My pick to win today is Kyle Busch, who also sits at 5/1. Of all active drivers, he has the best average finish here and the most top 5 finishes. His last 3 races here have seen finishes of 5th, 4th, and 2nd. Busch has struggled without having practice sessions due to COVID-19 regulations, but the guy is due for a victory. He has yet to win a race this season. The last season Busch didn't win a race was in 2004, when he only ran 6 races. I think today is the day for his first victory of the 2019-20 campaign.
Another guy to keep an eye on is Erik Jones at 25/1. He only has 3 starts at Kentucky but has an average finish of 5.3.
I prefer to look at matchups over anything else. In 2020, I am 31-25, +5.7 units in matchups. Here is who I am on today.
Kyle Busch -105 vs. Kevin Harvick: I discussed both these drivers above. Harvick's car has been unbelievable since the restart, but his "struggles" at Kentucky have me thinking we won't see him with another win today.
Ryan Blaney +100 vs. Joey Logano: Over the last 6 races at 1.5-mile tracks, Blaney has been the best driver in the Cup. His average finish of 5.8 is 7-slots higher than his average start.
Matt Dibenedetto -125 vs. Matt Kenseth: Dibenedetto is another guy who has been particularly good on 1.5-mile tracks this season. His average finish is 2-slots higher than his average start. Kenseth on the other hand? Not great! Over the last 6 1.5-mile track races, Kenseth ranks 24th among active drivers with a finish of 22.2.
Brad Keselowski +115 vs. Denny Hamlin: Keselowski has a higher average finish than Hamlin at Kentucky and over the last 6 races on 1.5-mile tracks. Like the value here.
Other (+0.9 units):
Kyle Busch 5/1 to win
Ryan Blaney +250 to finish Top 5
Brad Keselowski +150 to finish Top 5