I make my debut at Barstool Sports... A real gambler whose been doing this shit for a decade. I bring it every fuckin time and i'm ready to help you all not only win but learn something and be better bettors. There are things that matter in sports betting and things that don't. It's time to clean some things up around here.
It's funny when I got my start betting many years ago, an old South Philly wiseguy called Chris Chill told me something very simple. Don't bet money on bad teams. It's stuck with me for a long time. Tonight though, i'm bucking that advice from a living legend.
Jaguars were tanking according to most coming into the season. However surprisingly they are 1-1. A hard fought come from behind win in week 1 against the Colts and then a wild shootout loss to a very solid Titan team. The offense has been on fire. Gardner Minshew continues to silence people that don't think he has the ability to lead an NFL team. His meteoric rise has been truly hard to believe. From East Carolina back up to almost quitting football to Mike Leach and Washington State to NFL starting QB. I know it's only 2 weeks but he has a fuckin 115 passer rating... he hasn't been afraid to throw the ball down the field and keep plays alive.
Against Miami, this will continue. Flat out... watching Dolphins defensive tape over the last 2 weeks, I got the same feeling when Rico Bosco showed himself to the masses, I about threw up. This group is terrible. No passing defense has been worse allowing over 10 yards a pass play and with Byron Jones out, it should continue. With the virus, and the random practice schedules, adjustments become more difficult and with a short week for the Dolphins, I don't expect much change on the defense end. Not only have they been wretched against the pass, they can't stop the run. It's a yearly thing for Miami's run defense though. The last 3 seasons they've been in the bottom 5 in rush defense and this season through 2 games, they've allowed 5 YPC. How about this kid James Robinson? 102 last week, he's come out of nowhere for the Jags. I don't even fuckin remember Leonard Fournette. Miami also has gotten nothing up front pressure wise. Last week against Buffalo, Josh Allen had tons of time and burned the Dolphins constantly with crossing routes and his legs. Look for Minshew to attack through the crossing patterns, but also air it out downfield. DJ Chark is questionable, but I expect him to play. I've been impressed with not only him but Keenan Cole, Laviska Shenault and Chris Conley.
One thing you have to look at when involving yourself with totals is TD percentage in the red zone. I don't want field goals, nor do I need them. Jacksonville has been terrific so far in the red zone converting 86 percent of their opportunities into 6. That's third in the league.
The team total for Jacksonville at Barstool Sportsbook is 25.5... it's just too low. That's where my money is tonight.
A lot of people will undoubtedly reach out and ask me about why i'm not taking a side here or full game total. I just really don't want to worry about the Jags defense. I don't think they can get any stops either. The full game total is high, but the public has bet it over all week and it hasn't budged really off the open. I have an odd reason to think this team is 28-21 ish....
PICK: Jaguars TT OVER 25.5 (-112)