Weather has turned. There's a cool chill in the air, leaves on the ground. It's October and football is in full force. In a matter of weeks, all but 3 college football teams will be playing as all conferences will be back. It's a great time to be alive.
Air Force begins their season this weekend against military school foe Navy which begins the Commanders in Chief trophy. Navy took care of business last season in this game winning 34-25. Navy has looked a bit different though. They have a new QB in Dalen Morris after star Malcolm Perry went to the NFL. He struggled game 1 out of the gate but led a huge comeback 2 weeks ago against Tulane. He's a pretty efficient passer for Navy standards but as we know Navy will keep the ball on the ground. Air Force has problems of their own. QB last season Donald Hammond was reported "not in good standing" and isn't listed on their depth chart released this week. There is no decision on who will be the signal caller Saturday. Running back Kadin Remsberg is back who is a star and could carry them. Navy in both games struggled to stop the run but started to figure it out against Tulane. From what I've heard out of Colorado Springs, AF is also depleted defensively and had to hustle to get prepared for this week.. It could take some time for them to get going. This seems on paper like a terrible spot for the Falcons against a team coming off an off week. Keep in mind, last season Navy was 8-1 ATS as a favorite. Hard to not like the Naval Academy here.
UCF has been dominant in the first two weeks of the season. They put up 49 week 1 and 51 last week. They have been warp speed running 91 plays a game and what's great for spread and over bettors, they never take the foot off the gas. Last week I lucked out with a late TD to hit the OVER against ECU. The big question when you bet an over involving UCF is can the other team hit 24? They are good for 50 every week and against Tulsa they will push it again. The Golden Hurricanes first game was an outlier and I think they have a better time offensively this week and a tough time getting stops against a healthy, quick offense. QB Zach Smith is better than Holton Ahlers was for ECU and I expect them to look to wing it around a bit more. UCF has a little revenge here, they lost to Tulsa 34-31 last season. Over the last 2 seasons, Tulsa has been a barking dog covering 6 of 8 grabbing points. Points should be on the card here. As I said though it's going to come down to Tulsa scoring TD's, because UCF will.
Mississippi State looked unbelievable last week as we know. They were the story of the weekend. How good and natural KJ Costello look in the vaunted Air Raid offense? 632 total yards for the Bulldogs.. 623 through the air. A fuckin thing of beauty. This is a absolute concern for Arkansas. They were destroyed last week in the 2nd half by Stetson Bennett who was 20/28 and put up 211 and 2 TD's. I worry about what MSU could do here. The hope early for Arkansas is that they can get Rakeem Boyd going and keep the ball away from KJ and Leach. One thing about the Air Raid that people don't understand is it's not necessarily a quick strike offense. They move the ball down the field but it takes 10 yards at a time. The whole world saw what we did last week, but its clear MSU sucks defensively and with a running back that can pound the ball and QB that knows the SEC, it has me thinking. Grabbing the points may be in the cards against an overvalued Bulldog team. This line is interesting. I expected Miss State would be 21. They are 18. I get the feeling this is close. Last year at Wazzou, Leach was 3-6 laying points and very few of those was he almost a 3 TD favorite.
Texas is a double digit favorite against TCU. Why? In conference they have covered once over the last six games as a DD fave. Oh by the way... boy did that defense look bad last week. I'm also high on TCU QB Max Duggan. He took his lumps as a frosh last year, but is an Iowa high school star and is already evolving. He was terrific last week against Iowa State.
The kid can play. Add in the fact that TCU always brings a tough and strong defense. Could be another dog barking. I'll gladly take points with Herman, but he's a mess in the favorite roll. Always has been. Always will be.
Enjoy week 4... and bet responsibly. Saturday I will post another deep dive of a game I have my eye on. Last week's matchup easily came in with Houston Baptist and La Tech going over.
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