Back for another week of college football. Hit my first of these last week with Houston Baptist and LA Tech flying over the total. Let's get after it here in week 5. This is an interesting card as we get more and more teams back with some games under their belts.
Currently at Barstool Sportsbook, Navy is a 7.5 point favorite and the total is 47.
Air Force hasn't played yet, but now that the MWC is back, they return with a couple non conference games before the season truly starts in conference play. The word out of Colorado Springs is bad news. First things first, the Falcons lost 40 players due to opt out from COVID mostly due to retaining eligibility. To make matters worse, starting QB Donald Hammond has been in poor standing as a cadet according to the Academy and he wasn't listed on the depth chart. He has been practicing with the team and there could be a chance he can play, but according to reports both of the other quarterbacks look ready go. So that means they will likely be playing with a brand new QB when they take the field tomorrow. Throw in the fact also that this current depth chart has just one player back on defense. Messy times to start the season for Troy Calhoun and crew. Luckily the triple option is generally a system where it's next man up at QB and most of the important parts of it return.
There is some other positivity for them as well! They welcome back a five seniors on the offensive line including two of the best offensive lineman in the country in Nolan Laufenberg and Parker Ferguson. This group gave up just FOUR sacks last season, which led the country. Kadin Remsberg is also back at running back. He's one of my favorite players in the country. He runs with a purpose and chews it up on the ground. I worry for Navy here along that standpoint. They looked feeble on the ground against BYU and gave up 265 on the ground to Tulane.
Navy has had a pretty normal season so far. They played 2 games and then had a bye week last week at the right time and start their AAC schedule next week. Last time out they came from behind to beat Tulane after being down 24-0 at half and winning 27-24. Up until then it had been 6 quarters of misery for the Mids. Something clicked at half time and they figured it out. New QB Dalen Morris took control and the run game looked terrific. Morris even throw for a TD and was 6-11 throwing the ball, something out of the ordinary for Navy. He seems like a confidence passer which is huge for them. What a wrinkle it adds! Good vibes especially with a week off to tinker with some things and get prepared for a rivalry game. Navy should just be the sharper, more prepared team tomorrow. Still though, the defense worries me. It's hard to flip the numbers they allowed in 2 games.
I've also enjoyed back Navy for years now, but last year was tremendous. They were 8-1 ATS as a favorite and covered both games last season as a road fave. They beat AF 34-25 as well. I considered Navy here, but a lot more at anything under 7. The game went over the number of 46.5. The last two games have been high scoring between these teams totaling 59 and 93 points. I know people just assume military school unders just come in, but not lately.
Most teams that play their first game struggle but COVID adds even another new wrinkle. For the Air Force that concerns me. Navy should be high off their come from behind win against Tulane. That thrilling comeback win was something they needed badly. They were able to make some adjustments on the off week and should be more than ready for Air Force and their question marks. Something seemed to click after Tulane. I think they get going early and often. Air Force will struggle defensively which such gaps and players out due to the virus. I think the offense gets going too. Remsberg is a star and the OL is very good.
Seems like a 31-24... 27-24 type of game. I'm on the OVER 47. Good Luck and bet responsibly!