My Thoughts On The Lone Football Game On The Card Tonight

NO NFL game due to COVID scheduling quirks, so other than baseball we have just one football game on and it's in college.

FUN BELT TIME.... the Arkansas State Red Wolves vs the mighty Georgia State Panthers.. Let's jump into it. 

Currently Arkansas State is a 3.5 point favorite and the total is 72

Arkansas State has a really tough slate to start the season. At Memphis, a game they were competitive in. They went to Manhattan and beat Kansas State outright and played a really good Coastal Carolina team. They returned home last week and dropped 50 on Central Arkansas and now get GA State.

When looking at the Red Wolves, its clear what they want to do: Throw the football. They have not one, but two capable quarterbacks that can wing it around and a really good skill group that includes Johnathan Adams who leads the conference in receptions and receiving TD's. They have 3 other skill guys that can be weapons as well. This is a formidable passing attack thowing the ball 6th most in the country. I worry for a Georgia State defense that hasn't necessarily faced this type of passing attack in the two games they've played. Both opponents in Louisiana and ECU are primarily run first teams and don't necessarily have good passing quarterback play. They will be tested here. 

Over the last 2 meetings between these two, the games have been shootouts. Last year 52-38, 2018 it was 51-35. 

Georgia State has been a fun team to watch and likely has a better defense. As I said I think the numbers are a bit skewed due to the offensive gameplan of the opponents. They will be tested here. The good thing for them is they have one of the better secondaries in the country. Jaylon Jones and Quavian White have already produced 20 pass breakups and have been quite the tandem. They will both be guys that play at the next level. This game will be won because of their ability in my opinion: 

Arkansas State has weapons all over the place as I said. It's going to be an interesting cat and mouse game between both units. On offense, the Panthers are a more balanced team and new QB Cornelius Brown has been really good. They run the ball effectively with Destin Coates who leads the league in rush yards per game and have been terrific in the red zone. Finishing drives with touchdowns is the most important thing for an offense. Running the ball against a team like Arkansas State is also important. Long drives keep the ball out their hands and it could be the best defense they have. 

This game gets really interesting when you look at pace. Neither team holds onto the ball very long and the per play rate is blistering. They both rank in the top five in seconds per play nationally. 

As I said this will be a terrific cat and mouse game between two teams with weapons on both sides of the ball. Previous recent matchups have shown us that both teams have no problems getting into shootouts.

I trust GA State here. They have a capable mobile quarterback and a mammoth run game. Coates is really dynamic and should carve up a Red Wolves run defense that isn't good. They finish drives and have a good secondary. The defense is the difference here in my opinion. I played GA State +3.5. 

As always bet responsibly.