Crazy how quick the season is going…. another week already here. Mostly every teams season has begun. This week we have many cancellations and that's something we just have to deal with.
Since I came to Barstool these deep dives are 6-2-1. Let's keep the good times rolling.
Currently at Barstool Sportsbook, UCF is a 24 point favorite against Temple and the total is 75.5.
Throughout my time doing deep dives, Temple has been no stranger to me. They actually can move the ball behind solid QB Anthony Russo and a plethora of good wide receivers. Well, for the last two weeks, Russo has been out and they have been bad. He's back this week after being back at practice all week and I expect them to get back to putting points on the board. With Russo in the lineup, they've averaged 32 points per game in those three. UCF while great on the offensive end has struggled to get stops, constantly playing high scoring shootouts.
The problem that the Owls have is on defense. They just aren't very good. Tyler Matakevich and Haason Reddick aren't walking through the door anytime soon. They have allowed 39 points per game this year and the pass defense has been riddled on the regular. They now get to face the vaunted Knights who are averaging 45 points a game and have the best passing offense in the country with 418 yards a game. To put it into perspective, UCF throws 20 yards a game more than any other team. This offense is incredible. They score quick and have scored 49 or more 4 times.
Defensively the Knight have their own issues. They aren't great either. They allow over 31 a game and personnel issues are starting to catch up to them. Recently second leading tackler Eric Mitchell was involved in an off campus fracas and hasn't played and safety Antwan Collier opted out.
These pass defenses both suck. UCF allows 8.1 yards per pass attempt, Temple is at 9. Awful.
The biggest keys to hitting an OVER is pace. These teams fit the metric perfectly. UCF is third in the country at 93 plays a game and Temple is 20th with 78.
Keep in mind also the recent meeting was fun. Last season, UCF dropped SIXTY + on the Owls defense in a 63-21 win. In that game they had the 63 with 9:11 left. It could actually have been worse for the Owls. I don't know if they do that this year but 52-28 sounds about right.
I'm on the OVER 75.5 here.
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