Katie Stats' Games of the Week

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I want to do a special welcome to all the Indiana fans (join the Notre Dame fans that are already there) that I apparently live rent free in their heads. Shoutout to whoever put my tweet on a message board or something because good LORD people are pissed and butthurt. Yes, I knowwww Ohio State's opponent's combined record is 2-9. It is Ohio Fucking State. Get your panties out of a bunch. Just go read the quote tweets, it's hilarious, but I respect it. 

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Indiana win this weekend, but let's cross the bridge when we get there. If your team is still playing this weekend, say thank you to the football gods that be. But least we still have some games, so let's talk some football.

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#20 USC @ Utah, 10:30pm, (opened USC -3.5, 56.6)
  • Matchup: In the L7 games the home team has won. Utah has covered 3/L4. In the L5 games the over is 5-0-1. USC is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Utah, and 0-3 SU in L3. USC is 5-0 SU when favored in this matchup.

    • 2019: USC won 30-23 @ home (USC +3.5, p53)

    • 2018: Utah won 41-28 @ home (Utah -7, o48)

    • 2017: USC won 28-27 @ home (Utah +13, o52)

    • 2016: Utah won 31-27 @ home (Utah -2.5, o44.5)

  • USC (2-0) is off of a 34-30 win over Arizona, and a 28-27 win over Arizona State the week before. Can run the ball but favor throwing. Games are averaging 59.5 total points with USC scoring 31 of them. In both games this season, they have looked just decent, but have been saved by last minute plays, such as a tipped ball that resulted in a catch for a TD instead of an overthrow, to save them. They have struggled to keep opposing QBs in the pocket, allowing Arizona’s QB to lead his team with 111 rushing yards last week. Had 110 yards in penalties last week. Are T111th in red zone conversions at 71.43%.

    • Spread: Haven’t covered their L3 games. As a road favorite, are 1-4 ATS in the L5 games. When favored by less than a TD, are 2-4 ATS in L6.

    • Total: Both games have gone under this season, after they finished their 2019 season with 6 overs. As a road favorite, the over is 4-1 in the L5. When favored by less than a TD, the over is 5-1 in L6. Over is 5-1 after a SU win. USC, as a ranked team, playing an unranked team, they are 0-6 ATS in L6 and 1-11-1 ATS in L13.

    • SU: As a road favorite are 7-2 SU in L9. When favored by less than a TD, are 2-4 US in L6

  • Utah: hasn’t played this year. Went 11-3 last year, and 8-1 in Pac 12 play. Their one regular season loss came from USC. They’re last in FBS in returning production; highlighting losses of their All-Pac-12 QB, RB and LBs. All 8 players that were on that list have since left. The receivers are probably the only position group that isn’t a question mark right now. Only have 2 starters returning to a defense that finished 1st in the Pac 12 in numerous categories, and 2nd nationally in total yards. Have to reload their entire secondary, and could be starting a true freshman at CB. QB battle is between two P5 transfers. Cameron Rising transferred from Texas last year, and has had a year on the scout team to learn the offense. But Jake Bentley from South Carolina started for most of three seasons at his old school. They were a force to be reckoned with last year, but with so much turnover, especially on defense, it all hinges on how well they are able to reload. So take the below stats with a grain of salt. They have 2 games of tape on USC. 

    • Spread: Last year were 9-5 ATS, and 8-2 ATS in Pac-12 games. Are 5-0 ATS in L5 home games. Are 8-1 ATS in L9 Pac 12 games. When an unranked team is less than a 4 point underdog vs a ranked team, the unranked team is 10-2 ATS in L12.

    • Total: As an unranked team playing a ranked team, the over is 3-1 in the L4. As a home team the under is 5-1 in the L6.

    • SU: Are 1-8 SU in L9 games as an underdog, and lost the L6 as a home underdog. As an unranked team playing a ranked team, they’re 1-4 SU in L5. Have won the L11 home games. When an unranked team is less than a 4 point underdog vs a ranked team, the unranked team is 7-2 SU in L9.

  • The stats scream to take Utah. That's it. Yea it is a risk because we haven't seen Utah play and they aren't returning many players, but I can't blindly pick USC here. I also like the over because Utah has to figure its defense out since only 2 players are returning. I am a bit nervous that Utah's defense could turn into the next LSU with struggling to reload after missing all of their players, but fuck it let's have some faith. 

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#7 Cincinnati @ UCF, 3:30pm, (opened Cincy -3, 61.5)

  • Matchup: The #1 passing offense, UCF, vs. the #3 scoring defense. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in L5 meetings. Home team is 4-1 ATS in L5 meetings. Under is 4-1 in all meetings. As of Tuesday afternoon, 99% of the money is on Cincinnati and the over. 

    • 2019: Cincy won 27-24 @ cincy (Cincy +3.5, u63.5)

    • 2018: UCF won 38-13 @ UCF (UCF -6.5, u60.5)

    • 2017: UCF won 51-23 @ cincy (UCF -15, o52.5)

    • 2016: UCF won 24-3 @ home @ UCF (UCF -10.5, u51.5)

  • Cincinnati (7-0) is coming off of a 55-17 win over ECU on Friday, and a 38-10 win over Houston the week before. Haven’t allowed more than 17 points vs. an FBS team this year. Games have been averaging 54 total points, with Cincinnati scoring 41.6 of them. Slightly favor running the ball over throwing, but good in both. Held the #2 and #3 total offenses in the AAC to 10 and 13 points respectively. Yes UCF is averaging 100+ more yards than those two, but it alludes to showing experience of not being phased by strong offenses. Leads the AAC in rushing offense, rushing defense, and passing defense.

    • Spread: Are 5-2 ATS on the year, and have covered the L4. Since 2019, as a favorite are 10-6 ATS and 9-5 ATS in conference games. Are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record ini L5. 

    • Total: When favored by a TD or less, the over is 5-1 in the L6. L4 road games have gone under. Under is 6-1 in Bearcats L7 vs. a team with a winning record. As an away favorite, the over is 3-1 in the L4. Under is 8-1 in L9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

    • SU: have won the L6 as a road favorite. Have won the L7 when favored by a TD or less.

  • UCF (5-2) is coming off of a 38-13 win over Temple, a bye week, and a 44-21 win over Houston the week before. Games have been averaging 72.7 total points UCF scoring 44 of them. Can run and throw the ball but favor throwing; are avering 396.9 passing ypg. Averaging a total offense of 619.1 ypg. Had a season low of 26 points, and a loss, to the the #2 defense in the AAC.

    • Spread: This is their first time in 20 games they aren’t favored, and first time the underdog vs. an American conference team since 2016. Are 2-5 ATS on the year. Are 1-6 ATS in L7 home games. Are 1-5 ATS in L6 games as a home underdog. Since 2019, vs AAC teams are 3-11 ATS, and 3-6 ATS as the home team

    • Total: As a home underdog, the L4 games all went under. Over is 5-0 L5 games following an ATS win. Against a ranked team, the over is 5-2 in L7. 

    • SU: Have lost the L7 games as a home underdog. 

  • It worries me that the spread is so small and the total is so high. I would have expected it to be Cincy -11 and in the mid 50s. But guess that alludes to who I like in this matchup. Yes UCF's offense is really impressive, but I think that Cincinnati's defense is better. Yes UCF is out for blood because if they couldn't make the CFP in 2017 then they'll do their best to stop another G5 team. Pettiness makes the world go around. But still going with Cincinnati to cover. If you want to go with a total, I'd go with who you think is going to take charge in the game; over for UCF or under for Cincinnati. 

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#14 OK State @ #18 OU, 7:30pm, (opened OU -9.5, 58.5)

  • Matchup: Oklahoma has won the last 5 meetings, and 13 of the L15. Road team is 7-1 ATS in L8 meetings. Oklahoma is 6-0 SU when the lesser game day show is at Bedlam. Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings. This is the first time since 2013 that OK state comes in ranked higher than OU.

    • 2019: OU won 34-16 @ away (OU -14, u68)

    • 2018: OU won 48-47 @ home (OK +21.5, o80)

    • 2017: OU won 62-52 @ away (OU +1, o76)

    • 2016: OU won 38-20 @ home (OU -12, u74)

  • OK State (5-1) had a bye last week, a 20-18 win over Kansas State, and an OT 41-34 loss of Texas the week prior. Games have been averaging 45.8 total points with OK State scoring 28 of them. Are a slightly favoring passing team, but can run the ball well. Against Kansas State, they struggled to maintain the mobile QB, allowing KSU’s Will Howard to get 125 rushing yards. Their top WR Tylan Wallace didn’t play vs. KSU due to injury, but word is that he is back this week.

    • Spread: Are 5-0 ATS in L5 games as a road underdog. Hasn’t covered their L3 games. Are 1-3 ATS in L4 games vs. ranked teams, but is 4-1 ATS when on the road vs. ranked teams. Are 6-1 ATS in L7 games as an underdog to a ranked team. Have covered the L10 games when an underdog by 10 or less. 

    • Total: The under is 4-2 this year. Under is 5-1 in L6 games as an underdog. As the away team the under is 5-1-1 in the L7. As a road underdog, are 5-1 ATS in L6. Under is 6-1 in L7 vs. ranked teams. Under is 9-3 in L12 when an underdog vs a ranked team. 

    • SU: are 1-3 SU in L4 games as a road underdog. 

  • Oklahoma (5-2) had a bye week last week, a 62-9 win over Kansas, and a 62-28 win over Texas Tech the week prior. Games have been averaging 70.5 total points, with Oklahoma scoring 46.1 of them. Are a heavy passing team, but can still run the ball. Are allowing an average of 98.6 rushing yards per game. They lost to Kansas State and Iowa State earlier in the season which took them out of the national spotlight; but since then it seems that they have figured out their defensive issues and Rattler has buttoned up. In the Kansas game Rattler suffered a bruised hip but stayed in despite struggling to complete passes and in pain, so don’t read too much into the only 55.5% completion. 

    • Spread: Are 5-2 ATS for the year, and have covered the L4. Vs a ranked opponent are 2-4 ATS in the L6, and are 0-4 ATS when it’s a top 15 team.

    • Total: The over is 5-2 for the year. Over is 5-1 in L6 games as a favorite and in L6 games vs. B12 teams. Vs a ranked team, the under is 6-2 in the L8. As a home favorite, the over is 4-2 in the L6. As a home favorite vs ranked teams, the under is 4-1 in L5. 

  • Welcome to another one of my flip flop games; I can see this going either way. Oklahoma clearly was struggling on both sides of the ball early in the season, but seems to have figured their shit out. Or have they just played some subpar teams? On the other hand OK State's defense has been pretty impressive, but has shown signs of breaking. Both teams have had an extra week to prepare for this game, and it is arguable that Oklahoma has had two weeks since they played Kansas. I think that OK State's offense will be super impressive this weekend, but because of their offense struggling, they will spend too much time on the field and will allow Oklahoma to score. But OK State will keep it within the points.

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#10 Wisconsin @ #19 Northwestern, 3:30pm, (opened Wisco -7, 45.5)

  • Matchup: 6 of L7 have gone under. Both teams are allowing under 92 yards rushing yards per game. Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS in L6 meetings vs. Northwestern, and 1-5 ATS in L6 meetings at Northwestern. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in L6 meetings. 

    • 2019: Wisco won 24-15 @ home (NW +23.5, u46)

    • 2018: NW won 31-17 @ home (NW +4.5, u50.5)

    • 2017: Wisco won 33-24 @ home (NW +16.5, o50)

    • 2016: Wisco won 21-7 @ NW (Wisco -6, u42)

  • Wisconsin (2-0) off of a 49-11 win over Michigan, two weeks off due to covid, and a 45-7 win over Illinois to start the season. Games have been averaging 56 total points with Wisconsin scoring 47 of them. Are a heavy rushing team, but can throw well too. After not playing for 2 weeks, held Michigan scoreless for the first half; yes Mertz wasn’t his Illinois self, but give him some time to shake off the rust. Also granted, we all know how bad Michigan is, so not sure how much the score was Michigan being bad or Wisconsin not losing anything when they didn’t play for two weeks. 

    • Spread: Have covered both games this season, and covered 4 of L5. Are 4-0 ATS in L4 games vs. B1G teams. As away favorites, are 8-2 ATS in L10.

    • Total: L3 games have gone over, and is 7-1 in L8. As a favorite, the L7 games have gone over. L4 games as a road favorite have gone over. Over is 6-1 in L7 B1G games. When favored by less than 10, the L4 games have gone over. 

  • Northwestern (4-0) are coming off of a 27-20 win over Purdue, and a 21-13 win over Nebraska the week before. Games are averaging 42 total points, with Northwestern scoring 28 of them. Run and throw the ball, averaging only 354.8 total offensive ypg. Last week vs. Purdue, was the first time they had allowed a point in the second half this season. They only allowed Purdue to have 2 rushing yards.

    • Spread: Have covered the L5 games. Are 0-5 ATS in L5 games as a home underdog. Are 3-8 ATS at home vs a ranked team. 

    • Total: L5 have gone under. As an underdog, the under is 7-2 in L9. Are 2-6 ATS in L8 games vs ranked teams.

    • SU: Lost the L5 games as a home underdog. Lost the L5 games vs ranked teams.

  • This game is probably the one I'm the most excited for this weekend. It's a huge matchup of Wisconsin's offense and Northwestern's defense. Still not really sure what to make of the other half of either team, but will figure that out this weekend as well. So far this season, with matchups of top offenses and defenses, the offenses seem to have come out on top more often. In the same way that I think Oklahoma will win, I think Wisconsin will just outlast Northwestern and wear them out. So Wisconsin to cover. 

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#9 Indiana @ #3 OSU, 12:00pm, (opened OSU -19.5, 62.5)

  • Matchup: Ohio State has won the last 24 meetings. Indiana hasn’t won since Oct. 8, 1988. L3 have gone over. Indiana is 5-0 ATS @ OSU in L5 meetings. As of Tuesday afternoon, 95% of the money is on the over. Look for OSU’s young secondary to be tested by Penix and his receivers. 

    • 2019: OSU won 51-10 @ Indiana (OSU -18, o60)

    • 2018: OSU won 49-26 @ OSU (IU +27.5, o64)

    • 2017: OSU won 49-21 @ Indiana (OSU -20.5, o54.5)

    • 2016: OSU won 38-17 @ OSU (IU +28, u61)

  • Indiana (4-0) are coming off of a 24-0 win over Michigan State, and a 38-21 win over Michigan the week prior. Is a mostly passing team, averaging 95.3 rushing ypg. Games are averaging 53.1 total points, with Indiana scoring 33.8 of them. Indiana's opponent's combined record: 3-13 Indiana has scored 51 points off of 12 turnovers, just over 1/3 of their total points scored this season. 10 of the TOs were off of interceptions, and Justin Field hasn’t thrown one yet. Have fun arguing if Indiana caused those TOs or if they just have faced shitty QBs. 

    • Spread: Have covered the L5 games. Are 6-0 ATS as a road underdog, 7-0 ATS after a SU win, 6-1 ATS in L7 as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in L6 on the road, and 5-1 ATS in L6 games vs. a team with a winning record. Vs. ranked teams are 7-2 ATS in L9 games. Vs a ranked team on the road are 9-3 ATS in L12. When an underdog by 14+, are 5-1 ATS in L6, and 9-2 ATS when also on the road.

    • Total: The over is 3-1 this season. Vs. a top 10 team the over is 4-1-1. Vs a ranked team the over is 8-1-2 in L11. When an underdog by 14+, the over is 4-1-1. When their opponent is coming off of a rest, the over is 10-2 in L12. 

    • SU: Haven’t beaten a top 5 team (at least back to 1996). Have lost the L10 away games vs. ranked teams. Have lost the L14 games when an underdog by 14+. 

  • Ohio State (3-0) had an off week due to Maryland’s outbreak, beat Rutgers 49-27, and won 38-25 over Penn State the week prior. Run and throw the ball well but prioritize throwing. Games are averaging 69.3 total points, with OSU scoring 46.3 of them. Opponent’s combined record is 2-9, so they haven’t been pushed this season yet. They have had an extra week, and an extra game of film to prepare for this game for. 

    • Spread: When favored by 14+ vs. a B1G team, are 1-4 ATS in L5 games. Are 6-3 ATS as a home favorite, and 9-4 ATS in B1G games, since 2019. 

    • Total: When favored by 18+, the over is 5-1 in L6 games. Vs. ranked teams, the under is 6-1-1 in L8. When favored by 14+ vs. a ranked opponent, the L4 have gone under. Since 

    • SU: On a 22 game win streak at home. Have won the L17 games when favored by 18+.

  • Just going to say another welcome to all my Indiana football fans out there. Welcome, pull up a chair, put your feet up. Despite all the fun we've had this week on twitter, and my pettiness, I'm still going with my original pick. I think Indiana is going to cover. Ohio's defense isn't what it was last year, especially in the secondary. I don't like that OSU has had an extra week to prepare for this game due to Maryland's outbreak. Indiana is going to throw the damn ball all day long, and so will Ohio State. So my best pick for this is the over. But, 20.5 points is a lot, and Indiana loves Tom Allen and playing for him. Ohio State is the better team pound for pound but Indiana has more heart and momentum here. If Indiana does get blown out, I'll admit I was wrong, and will be accepting apologies via twitter from your entire fan base. 

If you do decide to bet on these, please do so responsibly.