Already almost to December and the season is heating up in college football. Since starting these deep dives when I got hired I've been in profit sitting at 6-3-1 on the season. Last week my play on Clemson was scrapped after a postponement a few hours before the morning of the game. Let's get into this week. Going to have to stay up late with this one!
I'm going to the MWC, where Boise State is a 11 point home favorite vs San Jose State. The total is 58.
I'll give San Jose State some credit, they are 4-0. But when you look at the schedule, outside of San Diego State there isn't much here. This defense has yet to be tested against a really good offense. They will be this week as they head up to Boise. Let's first talk offense, SJSU has been very solid. They are averaging 29 a game and Texas A&M transfer Nick Starkel has been terrific. The pass offense is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt which is top 20 and the country and Starkel has nearly 1000 yards and a 70% completion percentage. They have good weapons on the outside and a good offensive line to protect. I think they can attack this Boise defense vertically, a Boise defense giving up 30 a game and almost 400 yards per. Last week against Hawaii, Boise struggled to get stops and it quickly turned into a shootout. SJSU should continue to move the ball and push 30.
As far as Boise's offense, it really hasn't mattered whose been at QB. Hank Bachmeier is the leader, but even when he was out with COVID, others picked up the slack. He's finally back now and off a big time game. He should be able to pick on an overrated SJSU defense that hasn't necessarily faced this level of passing attack. Up and down the roster, Boise is filled with big time playmakers. Kalil Shakir is among the best WR's in the country and off an 11 catch 130 yard night with two touchdowns last week. As usual Boise State is up there with the big boys offensively scoring 40 a game, that's what they do on the blue turf. The last 4 Boise games have seen at least 68 points. This total just seems too low for me. Generally when a team that hasn't seen a big time offense like this one and have overachieved, they fold
One thing about both these teams I love is the special teams and return game, both have electric returners that will setup great field position for their offenses. Boise returner Avery Williams is one of the best in the country and had a KO return for a TD last week. Shamar Garrett has been big for the Spartans averaging about 27 a return. Should see good field po all night!
Weather looks clear and cold as well with temps around 35. I'm taking the OVER 58 here. I think we see a 41-28 type Boise win.
As always when gambling please do it responsibly. If you're in PA, make sure you're betting with Barstool Sportsbook, always plenty of great promos and exclusive wagers!