The game of the weekend is BYU at Coastal Carolina, no way around it. Sorry SEC schools, but two 9-0 teams? Sign me up. After that game though, not really sure what else stands out. Obviously the games I cover in here are some of the bigger ones. But none of them I look at and am like "Wow, I'm excited to see this game. Just BYU Coastal. You know what comes with a quiet weekend though? Upppsseeetttssss. So here's hoping. Otherwise, let's talk some football.
#4 Ohio State @ Michigan State, 12:00pm, (opened OSU -21.5, 59.5)
Questions: Was Ohio State exposed vs. Indiana? If they were, do you think they can fix their problems and come back with fire, or that is their ceiling? Will Justin Fields button back up? How is Michigan State such a rollercoaster, and will they find consistency one way or another?
Matchup: Ohio State has won the L4. The L5 went under.
2019: OSU won 34-10 @ home (OSU -20, u51)
2018: OSU won 26-6 @ away (OSU -3.5, u49)
2017: OSU won 48-3 @ home (OSU -17, u55)
2016: OSU won 17-16 @ away (MSU +20, u50)
Ohio State (4-0) didn’t play last week due to covid issues on the team, beat Indiana 42-35, and beat Rutgers 49-27 the week before. Will not have Ryan Day on the sideline this weekend due to covid, not sure who else or how many others will miss. Games have been averaging 71.3 total points, with OSU scoring 45.3 of them. Slight favor to throwing, but can run very well. Averaging only allowing 98.5 rushing ypg. Has the 117th passing defense with allowing 291.0 ypg.
Spread: 5-1 ATS in their L6 road games. Top 10 teams coming off of a bye week are 0-8 ATS in the L8.
Total: In the L4 the over is 3-0-1. Their L5 games vs unranked teams have gone over. In road games vs unranked teams the over is 8-1-2 in the L11. Games with top 5 teams coming off of a bye, the over is 9-2 in the L11. When favored by 21+ the L7 games have gone over. When playing a team that is at or under .500, the over is 6-0-1 in the L7.
SU: Won their L8 road games, and L12 games vs unranked teams.
Michigan State (2-3) coming off of an upset 29-20 win over Northwestern, had a bye week due to covid issues at Maryland, and lost to Indiana 24-0 the week before. Games have been averaging 49 total points, with MSU scoring 18 of them. Averaging only 98 rushing ypg, which is 122th in the nation; so heavy throwing team. Has overcome 2 double digit dog spreads to SU win this season.
Spread: After an upset win, are 0-5 ATS in the L5 games. Has the 117th scoring offense with only 18.0 ppg.
Total: When playing a ranked team the under is 8-2 in the L10 games. Against an undefeated team, the under is 6-1 in the L7.
SU: 1-4 SU after an upset win in their L5.
I am staying the hell away from the spread. Yes I think Ohio State is the better team here, but Michigan State has been all over the place recently that I wouldn’t put it past them to surprise here. No, Michigan State isn’t going to win, but I think they have a decent chance to cover. It is going to be OSU by 40 or by 7, no middle ground. Plus we don’t know who will be out for OSU player wise. But I will be going with the over. OSU is scrambling to make a playoff run and needs all the points it can get.
#5 Texas A&M @ Auburn, 12:00pm, (opened A&M -3, 47.5)
Questions: Why is the spread so small? If Texas A&M takes control they will undoubtedly go for style points, but will Auburn let them?
Matchup: Underdog is 6-0-1 in L7 meetings. The away team is 6-0-1 in L7 meetings.
2019: Auburn won 28-20 @ A&M (AUB +4, P)
2018: Auburn won 28-24 @ AUB (A&M +4.5, o47.5)
2017: Auburn won 42-27 @ A&M (P, o52)
2016: A&M won 29-16 @ AUB (A&M +2.5, u55.5)
Texas A&M (6-1) are coming off of a 20-7 win over LSU after a two week hiatus, and a 48-3 win over South Carolina the week before. Games are averaging 54.1 total points with A&M scoring 31.7 of them. Can run the ball, but a pass heavy team. Are averaging only allowing 87.1 rushing ypg, which is 5th best in the nation.
Spread: Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their L4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 6-2 ATS in L8 road games. Against an unranked team at home are 1-4 ATS in L5.
Total: Under is 6-1 in Aggies L7 road games. Under is 8-3 in L11 games. Against unranked teams the under is 5-1 in the L6. The under is 4-1 in L5 games vs. teams at or under .500.
SU: Have won the L15 games vs. unranked teams.
Auburn (5-3) are coming off of a 42-13 loss to Alabama, and a 30-17 win over Tennessee the week before. Games have been averaging 51.1 total points with Auburn scoring 26.6 of them. Can run the ball, but a pass heavy team. There’s a high
Spread: Against a top 10 team are 2-6 ATS in the L8, but when at home are 4-1 ATS in L5. After a team plays Alabama, they’re 6-1-1 ATS in their next game, in the L8.
Total: L5, and 7/L8, have gone under. Against top 10 teams, the under is 10-2. After a team plays Alabama, their next game has gone under in the L5.
SU: Are 2-11 SU in L13 against teams whose winning percentage is 80+.
I am solely going with Auburn to cover because the spread is so small. I’m not sure why it is so low or what Vegas knows that we don’t. With Malzahn fighting for his job I think it is a let down spot for A&M. Yes likely I will be wrong, but it is too weird not to pass up. Both teams scream to take the under but it is already so low that it is scary to take. So take if you dare.
#12 Indiana @ #16 Wisconsin, 3:30pm, (opened Wisco -10, 50.5)
Matchup: Wisconsin has won the L10 meetings. Indiana is 0-5 ATS in the L5 meetings, and 0-4 ATS in L4 meetings in Wisconsin. Over is 6-1 in the L7 meetings. Favorite is 5-0 ATS in the L5 meetings. Wisconsin’s defensive efficiency is #1.
2017: Wisco won 45-17 @ IU (wisco -10.6, o49)
Indiana (5-1) are coming off of a 27-11 win over Maryland, and a 42-35 loss to Ohio State the week before. Games have been averaging 54.5 total points, with Indiana scoring 32.8 of them. Their QB Penix is out for the season with an ACL tear, the next QB up played the last game and looked just as good, if not better. Can run the ball, but a pass heavy team. Has the 10th worse rushing offense at only 102.33 rushing ypg. Leads the country in interceptions at 16.
Spread: Has covered their L7. When an underdog against a ranked team, are 8-2 ATS in the L10. Has covered the L6 games as a road underdog.
Total: Over is 5-1 in L6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 7-2 in L9 road games. Over is 7-3 in L10 games overall. When an underdog against a ranked team the over is 9-1-2 in the L12. The over is 6-2 in the L8 games as a road underdog.
Wisconsin (2-1) didn’t play last week due to covid issues at Minnesota, loss to Northwestern 17-7, and beat Michigan 49-11 the week before. Games have been averaging 45.4 total points, with Wisconsin scoring 33.7 of them. Split between passing and running the ball. Are averaging only allowing 67.3 rushing yards per game, which is 2nd best in the nation. Have the 5th best passing defense with only allowing 166.0 ypg, and the best total defense nationally. Is 100% in red zone conversions, and leads in stopping red zone conversions at 50%.
Spread: Teams after being favored, scoring less than 10, and losing, are 2-7 ATS in their next game. Yes it is a reach, I’m low on spread data for Wisconsin.
Total: After an upset loss, the under is 4-1 in the L5. After a bye week, the over is 5-0 in the L5. Over is 7-1 in L8 games as a favorite. When teams lose, then have a bye week, and favored in their next game the over is 9-1 in the L10.
SU: Have won the L5 ranked matchups at home.
Going to stick with Indiana continuing its covering streak. I’m not really worried about them not having Penix. But without him I’m not as confident about the over here anymore. So I just like Indiana to cover.
#3 Clemson @ Virginia Tech, 7:30pm, (opened Clem -21, 66.5)
Questions: Does VT have any fight left in it? Is Clemson going on a scorched earth campaign or keeping people healthy until the Notre Dame rematch?
Matchup: Clemson has won the L5. Clemson’s 3rd passing offense against VT’s 105th passing defense.
2017: Clemson won 31-17 @ VT (Clem -7, u49)
2016: Clemson won 42-35 @ ACC Champ game (VT +10.5, o59)
Clemson (8-1) are coming off of a 52-17 win over Pitt, had a 2 week bye due to covid issues, lost to Notre Dame 47-40 in 2OT the week before. Games have been averaging 65.3 total points, with Clemson scoring 46.1 of them. Can run the ball but are a heavy passing team. Have the 5th best scoring offense at 46.1 ppg, and the 3rd best passing offense at 362.8 ypg.
Spread: Against an unranked team on the road, are 8-2 ATS in L10 games.
Total: L5 games have gone over. When playing an unranked team, the L5 have gone over, but when playing them on the road the under is 5-2 in L7.
SU: Before the Notre Dame loss, had 14 SU wins in a row on the road.
Virginia Tech (4-5) are coming off of a bye week, lost to Pitt 47-14, and lost to Miami 25-24 the week before. They have lost 3 straight. Can throw the ball but are a heavy rushing team. Has the 9th best rushing offense at 250.89 rushing ypg.
Spread: Haven’t covered the L3, are 3-6 ATS for the year. Hokies are 5-2 ATS in their L7 home games, but the two losses were the most recent. 1-5 ATS in L6 vs. ranked teams.
Total: Over is 4-1 in Hokies L5 games following a bye week. The under is 5-2 in L7 games vs ranked teams at home. When a team loses 3 in a row then faces a ranked team, the over is 5-1 in the L6.
SU: Are 1-6 SU vs. ranked teams in their L7. Have won the L3 games as a home underdog.
Clemson by however many they want. I think that Fuente is a dead man walking and knows it; I don’t think he has a career saving game left in him. Plus the Clemson’s 3rd passing offense against VT’s 105th passing defense stat line makes me think that this is going to be a bloodbath for Virginia Tech. I also like the over, but not as much as I like Clemson to cover.
#1 Alabama @ LSU, 8:00pm, (opened Alabama -21.5, 74.5)
Matchup: LSU’s win last year ended an 8 year Alabama win streak. Nick Saban seems that he will be back on the sideline. The away team has covered the L4. The under is 8-2 in the L10 meetings, and is 4-0 in L4 meetings at LSU. Alabama has been favored 14x in a row in this matchup. The #4 passing offense, Alabama, vs. the 120th passing defense, LSU.
2019: LSU won 46-41 @ AL (LSU +5, o65.5)
2018: Alabama won 29-0 @ LA (Alabama -14, u51.5)
2017: Alabama won 24-10 @ AL (LSU +20.5, u46.5)
2016: Alabama won 10-0 @ LA (Alabama -7, u46)
LSU (3-4) are coming off of a 20-7 loss to Texas A&M, and a 27-24 win over Arkansas. Games have been averaging 60.7 total points with LSU scoring 30.4 of them. Is ranked 120th in passing defense. Can run the ball, but a pass heavy team. LSU hasn’t been this big of an underdog this century.
Spread: 4-0 ATS in the L4 after a SU loss. 6-1 ATS in the L7 games vs. a team with a winning record. 5-1 ATS in L6 home games. As an underdog are 7-1-1 ATS in the L9.
Total: L3 have gone under. L4 home games have gone over.
Alabama (8-0) are coming off of a 42-13 win over Auburn, and a 63-3 win over Kentucky the week before. Games have been averaging 67 total points, with Alabama scoring 48.5 of them. Can run the ball, but a pass heavy team. Have the 3rd best (1st in P5) scoring offense at 48.5 ppg, and the 4th best passing offense at 358.1 ypg.
Spread: have covered the L5. When favored by 24+ are 5-1 ATS in the L6. Against a team that’s under .500 have covered the L5.
Total: As an away favorite, the over is 5-1-1 in the L7.
SU: On a 9 game win streak.
Nick Saban is back from COVID and is out for blood against LSU for last year. I’ve heard the reports that LSU is looking better and has a “pep in their step” in prep for this weekend, but come on. This is Alabama. LSU has been shit on a stick this year. Especially with Alabama’s top pass offense against LSU’s nearly last in FBS pass defense? Are you kidding me? And it is playoff season? Sorry Tiger fans, you’re in for a very long Saturday. Though it would be really funny if LSU somehow found a way to win this game and kick Alabama out of the playoffs; improbable but funny.
#13 BYU @ #18 Coastal Carolina, 5:30pm, (opened BYU -10, 58.5)
No previous meetings. Both teams have played Texas State; BYU won 52-14 on 10/24, Coastal won 49-14 on 11/28. This year, with ranked matchups and a team is favored by 7+, they’re 10-1 ATS and 11-0 SU.
BYU (9-0) off of a bye week, beat Northern Alabama 66-14, bye week, then beat Boise 51-17 the week before. Boise was on their 3rd string QB for that game. Games have been averaging 61.5 total points with BYU scoring 47.6 of them. Defense is only allowing 89.1 rushing ypg. Can run the ball but are a heavy throwing team.
Spread: 8-1 ATS on the year. 5-1 ATS in L6 road games against ranked teams.
Total: The over is 4-1 in the L5. For away games the over is 6-1 in the L7. Over is 5-1-1 in their L7 road games. Against ranked teams the L4 have gone over.
Coastal Carolina (9-0) beat Texas State 49-14 last week, and beat App State 34-23 the week before. Games have been averaging 55.5 total points with Coastal scoring 38.7 of them. Both throw and run the ball well.
Spread: 7-1-1 ATS on the year. 5-0 ATS in L5 games as an underdog, but when an underdog by 8+ are 1-4 ATS in L5. 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Total: Over is 4-0 in their L4 non-conference games. Under is 5-1 in their L6 vs. a team with a winning record.
SU: Have lost their L5 when an underdog by 8+.
This is 100% a passion pick and might not end well for me but I’m picking Coastal ML. I know I know the stats aren’t there, but I’m just all onboard with Coastal. They’re America’s team. Have you seen their locker room celebrations? Can’t not love them.
If you do decide to gamble on these, please do so responsibly.