IT'S CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND BABY. FUCK. YES. About time too. Pour one out for Malzahn, bye buddy. I know we're all at each others throats over who should be in or out of the CFP, but we can all agree that we are going to have some very good football this weekend. I hope all hell breaks loose too. Imagine if Florida beat Alabama? The entire SEC would implode. Or if Ohio State loses to Northwestern? If the Big Ten did all this bending over for Ohio State, their sole shot at the CFP, to have them not make it? Kevin Warren will be fucked. I can't believe I have to root for Notre Dame to only lose by a few points instead of a blowout. I didn't hate them prior to this season, but with all you lovely fighting Irish fans in my mentions? Welcome to my shit list. But regardless, WE HAVE GOOD FOOTBALL THIS WEEKEND. (Even though Coastal is no longer playing, rip) But, pitter patter, let's get at er:
#14 Northwestern vs. #4 Ohio State, @ Lucas Oil, IN, 12:00pm (opened OSU -20, 59)
Matchup: Ohio State has won the last 8 meetings. The 4th scoring offense, OSU, against the 2nd scoring defense, Northwestern. Ohio State’s 6th ranked rushing defense will likely force Northwestern to keep the ball airborn. Ohio State has had an extra week to prepare for this.
2019: OSU won 52-3 @ NW (OSU -28.5, o50)
2018: OSU won 45-24 @ Lucas Oil (OSU -16.5, o63.5)
2016: OSU won 24-20 @ home (NW +25, u52.5)
Northwestern (6-1) coming off of a 28-10 win over Illinois, had a bye week due to covid issues at Minnesota, and a 29-20 loss to Michigan State the week prior. Games have been averaging 39.9 total points, with Northwestern scoring 25.3 of them. They split between running and throwing the ball. Has the 2nd scoring defense, and the 5th effiecient defense.
Spread: In their L8 games are 7-1 ATS. When an underdog by more than a TD, are 1-6 ATS in the L7. Against a top 5 team, haven’t covered the L6 games.
Total: The under is 6-1 for the season. Against a team with a winning record, the under is 5-1 in the L6 games.
SU: Have lost the L7 games when an underdog by more than a TD. When facing a top 5 team, have lost the L7.
Ohio State (5-0) didn’t play last week due to covid issues at Michigan, beat Michigan State 52-12, had a bye week due to covid issues at Maryland, and beat Indiana 42-35 the week prior. Games have been averaging 49.8, with OSU scoring 46.6 of them. Split running and throwing the ball. Averaging only allowing 95.0 rushing yards per game, which is 6th in the nation. Has the 4th scoring offense, 7th rushing offense, 5th total offense, but the 24th passing offense. Their issue is they’re 111th in passing defense.
Spread: At a neutral site, are 1-4 ATS in the L4. After keeping an opponent to under 15 points, they are 7-1 ATS in the L8 games. Against teams with a winning record, are 1-4 ATS in the L5.
Total: The over is 4-0-1 in the L5. The L3 games at neutral sites have gone under, and when favored the under is 5-2 in the L7. Against teams with a winning record, the under is 8-2-1 in the L11.
SU: Have won the L11 against ranked teams when favored by 7+.
Going by stats I like the under here. I know with Ohio State, it seems weird to like an under, but the stats say under so here we are. Not touching the spread; it is a lot of points and the numbers don’t really lean one way or the other. I have also seen reports of there being a big name on offense and other starters missing the game. So this game could be interesting.
#10 Oklahoma vs. #6 Iowa State @ AT&T, TX, 12:00pm, (opened OU -4, 60.5)
Matchup: Iowa State has covered the L5, and the over is 8-1 in the L9.
2020 (Oct. 3rd): ISU won 37-30 @ ISU (ISU +7.5, o62.5)
2019: OU won 42-41 @ OU (ISU +14.5, o68)
2018: OU won 37-27 @ ISU (ISU +18, o57)
2017: ISU won 38-31 @ OU (ISU +29, o66)
Oklahoma (7-2) didn’t play this weekend due to covid issues at WVU, beat Baylor 27-14, had a bye week to covid issues, beat Oklahoma State 41-13 the week prior. Games have been averaging 65.4 total points, with Oklahoma scoring 43.4 of them. They are averaging allowing only 88.1 rushing ypg, which is 4th in the nation. They rely mostly on passing the ball. Have the 7th scoring offense and 8th passing offense.
Spread: In their L6 games are 5-1 ATS. After an ats loss, are 2-5 ATS in the L7. When favored by less than 7 against a ranked team, have covered the L5.
Total: When favored at a neutral site, the under is 6-2 in the L8. When favored against a top 10 team, the under has hit in the L4 games.
SU: When favored by less than 7 against a ranked team, they have won the L5. When favored against a team with a winning record, have won the L6.
Iowa State (8-2) had a bye week, beat WVU 42-6, and beat Texas 23-20 the week before. Games have been averaging 55.3 total points, with ISU scoring 34 of them. They favor the pass, but run the ball well. Has the 10th rushing defense, but won’t have a huge effect here since Oklahoma doesn’t run the ball much to begin with.
Spread: As an underdog against a ranked team are 9-2 ATS in their L11 games. After a bye week are 7-0-1 ATS in the L8, and covered the L4 when the underdog. When an underdog are 9-2 in the L11, different games from against ranked teams. In their last 8 games are 7-1 ATS.
Total: Their L6 neutral games have gone under. When an underdog against a ranked team, the under is 6-2 in the L8 games, and against top 15 teams, the under is 5-1 in the L6. Against a team with a winning record, the L7 have gone under and is 14-2 in the L16. When less than a 7 point underdog to a ranked team, the L9 have gone under.
SU: Have lost their L5 games at neutral sites. Have lost their L4 games when the underdog in a ranked matchup. When an underdog to teams with winning percentages, have lost the L6. When an underdog by less than 7 to a ranked team, have lost the L5.
Iowa State thrives as an underdog, and I think they will stick to the pattern with this game. I also really like the under here as well. We’re having faith in the stats.
#3 Clemson vs. #2 Notre Dame, @ Bank of America, NC, 4:00pm (opened Clem -7.5, 62.5)
Matchup: Last time they met, Clemson was without Trevor Lawrence and key defensive players. Huge revenge game for Clemson, they’re fighting for their place in the CFP, whereas Notre Dame, likely, just needs to not be blown out.
2020 (Nov. 7th) ND won 47-40 2OT @ ND (ND +5.5, o52)
2018: Clem won 30-3 @ Texas (Clem -13, u55.5)
Clemson (9-1) coming off of a bye week, beat VT 45-10, and beat Pitt 52-17 the week before. Games have been averaging 64.3 total points, with Clemson scoring 46 of them. Can run the ball well, but are a heavy passing team. Has the 5th scoring offense, 7th passing offense, but 70th rushing offense. Has the top defense officiency.
Spread: When favored at a neutral site, are 7-2 ATS, including the L5. When favored against a top 10 team, are 5-1 ATS in the L6; with the loss being their previous meeting with Notre Dame. When favored by 7+ against a ranked team, are 6-1 ATS in the L7.
Total: The under is 4-1 in the L5 games when the favorite at a neutral site. When favored by 7+ against a ranked team, the under is 6-1 in the L7.
SU: Have won the L8 games when favored at a neutral site. When favored by 7+ against a ranked team have won at least the L12.
Notre Dame (10-0) coming off of a bye week, beat Syracuse 45-21, and beat UNC 31-17 the week before. Games have been averaging 54.8 total points, with ND scoring 37.7 of them. Split between running and passing the ball. Average only allowing 99.7 rushing yards per game, which is 8th in the nation. Highest offensive ranking is rushing ypg, at 11th.
Spread: When an underdog to a ranked team, are 4-1 ATS in the L5. Have covered the L6 games against teams with a winning record.
Total: When at a neutral site the under is 6-1. When an underdog to a ranked team the under 4-1 in the L5.
With UNC being the next ACC team up for a NY6 bowl, I now have to root for both of these teams to be in the playoffs. More specifically, I have to root for Clemson to win in a close game, as opposed to blowing them out. If Clemson wins by 30+, I think that Notre Dame will likely be out of the playoffs. So here’s to Clemson barely covering. Again, we’re taking an under. I know it is a lot of unders, but the numbers are there to give me faith, so deal with it. Fade me if you want, I just say which way the stats are leaning.
#1 Alabama vs. #7 Florida, @ Mercedes Benz, GA, 8:00pm, (opened Alabama -14, 71.5)
Matchup: Alabama has won the last 6 meetings. The last 4 have gone over. How big of a lookahead was last week for Florida, and if so, by how much?
2016: Alabama won 54-16 @ ATL (Alabama -24, o41)
Alabama (10-0) beat Arkansas 52-3, and beat LSU 55-17 the week before. Games are averaging 66.3 total points, with Alabama averaging 49.5 of them. Heavy pass team, but run the ball well. Have the 3rd scoring offense, 6th passing offense, and 5th total offense. Has the top offensive efficiency.
Spread: Have covered the L7 games. When favored by 14+ against a ranked team, are 4-0-1 ATS in the L5. Have covered the L4 games against teams with a winning record. When favored by 14+ at a neutral site, have covered the L4.
Total: Against teams that have a winning record, the over is 5-2 in the L7.
SU: Have won the L7 games on neutral field when favored by 14+. Have won the L14 when favored over a ranked team by 14+.
Florida (8-2) coming off of a 37-34 upset loss to LSU, and beat Tennessee 31-19 the week before. Games have been averaging 67.5 total points, with Florida scoring 41.2 of them. Can run the ball, but relies mostly on throwing. Has the top passing offense, and the 3rd most efficient offense.
Spread: In a neutral setting, are 2-6 ATS in the L8. When an underdog, are 4-1 ATS in the L5. After losing a game and an underdog in the next, haven’t covered the L5.
Total: When an underdog by 10+, the over is 6-1 in the L7. After losing, the over has hit the L7 times when the underdog in the next game.
SU: After losing and the underdog in next game, have lost the L6 games.
Just going with the over here. I know I’ll likely regret not picking Alabama to cover, but fuck it I just think it is way too obvious of a play; and with it being 2020? You know some shit is going to go down this weekend to make anyone and everyone mad and the CFP committee no matter what they pick.
#23 Tulsa @ #9 Cincinnati, 8:00pm, (opened Cincy - 14, 46.5)
Matchup: were supposed to play last weekend, but Cincinnati had covid issues.
2019: Cincy won 24-13 @ home (Tulsa +14.5, u47.5)
Tulsa (6-1) didn’t play last week due to covid issues at Cincy, beat Navy 19-6, didn’t play due to covid issues at Houston, and beat Tulane 30-24 in 2OT the week prior. Games are averaging 47.6 total points, with Tulsa scoring 27.7 of them. Can run the ball but favor passing it.
Spread: Have covered 6/L7 games. On the road, have covered the L5, and 9 of the L10. As a road underdog, are 5-1 ATS in the L6. Have covered the L4 games when an underdog by 14+. Against a top 10 team, haven’t covered the L4. Against teams with a winning percentage, are 5-1 ATS in the L6 games.
Total: Under is 5-1-1 in the L7 games against undefeated teams. When an underdog by 14+, the under has hit the L6 times, and 10/L11. Against undefeated teams, the under is 5-1-1 in the L7.
SU: Have lost the L11 games against a top 10 team.
Cincinnati (8-0) didn’t play last week due to covid issues, hasn’t played since 11/21 where they beat UCF 36-33, and beat ECU 55-17 the week prior. Not sure which players, if any, are going to be unavailable due to covid/contact tracing. Games have been averaging 55.9 total points, with Cincy scoring 40.9 of them. Offense splits running and throwing the ball. Has the 5th scoring defense and 9th total defense.
Spread: Have covered 4/L5. They are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Have covered their L4 ranked matchups. Have covered the L5 games against ranked teams.
Total: Over is 3-1 in the L4 games. Under is 9-3 in the L11 home games. Against ranked teams, the under is 7-1 in the L8.
SU: Have won their L9 games when a favorite by 7+.
I like the under the most here, and Cincinnati to cover just behind it. This is going to be a defensive slugfest. We still don’t know who will be missing from Cincinnati due to covid issues, but from what it seems they will be at or close to full strength.
If you do decide to gamble on these, please do so responsibly.