We've officially reached the point where real brackets are appearing. The Horizon League kicked off its tournament last night and quite frankly I fucking love it. Thanks to the Barstool Sportsbook we have a bunch of different bets out there for the NCAA Tournament. This isn't going to be a traditional futures blog as we write those before the year starts/early in the year. This is looking at seed bets and will teams make the NCAA Tournament or not. We'll run through some of my favorites that we have currently on the Sportsbook.
Again, every single one of these lines comes from the glorious Barstool Sportsbook. Make sure you download the app here.
Pick: Over 4.5
So just to be clear over means they'll be a 5-16 seed. I like this Arkansas team a ton, but to jump into the top-4 is going to take some work. They have LSU tomorrow and that's a huge game for seeding purposes. Right now they are projected as a the last 5 seed so seeing -112 for both is kinda interesting. The question is who are they jumping to get to a 4 seed? Right now projected 4/5/ seeds are Virginia, USC, Texas, Kansas, Creighton, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Arkansas in order. The 5 seeds all have flaws, but if Tennessee goes further than Arkansas they are a lock to be ahead of them. There goes a spot. Texas Tech, Texas and Kansas are all going to eat each other but the Big 12 is just so leaded that they'll get more quality wins. Unless Arkansas wins the SEC Tournament I think they are in that 5 seed. We'll play that for now.
Pick: Over 3.5
Similar to Arkansas we have Creighton on the 4 seed with the bet to jump to a top-3 seed. Creighton is uh unique to say the least. They have a couple bad losses - Marquette, Butler, Georgetown and even a home loss to Providence isn't great. They still have to go to Xavier - a team that desperately needs a win and at Villanova. Those are potential losses. You're giving me -106 for them to stay on that 4 seed and I'll stay there. Right now they are banking on the win over Nova and at UConn as the two best.
Pick: No +122
Here we go. Duke is currently favored to get into the tournament. I get it. There are conspiracy theories that the committee will put Duke in to get eyeballs, especially as a favor to the TV Networks after last year. But here's the thing. They haven't beaten anyone. That win against Virginia doesn't look as good as it did a week ago. They have Louisville and then at Georgia Tech and UNC left. All 3 of those are losable games. They are in the top-50 of the NET which is huge right now, but they have to win games. They control their own destiny but I'm fading Duke. Let's not forget, they haven't and won't play FSU this regular season which takes away the one great win they can have. I am terrified of them being in the first four though.
Sticking with the ACC and Florida State here. They are a projected 3 seed and I'm banking on them winning both the ACC regular season and ACC Tournament. They are the best team in the league and it's not even up for debate. But decent value on them jumping to a 2 seed line over some combo of Iowa, Houston, WVU, Nova and Alabama? Yeah, give me that. I think the 2 seeds will end up being Illinois, WVU, FSU and Bama. I'm also hedging a bit here with Creighton, if they beat Nova there goes Nova. I really wish they didn't have that loss to UCF, but everyone is going to have blemishes now.
Pick: Over 6.5
Yeah, I'm out on this Missouri team. They have quality wins - Oregon, Illinois, Tennessee and Alabama but they have some shitty losses. Not to mention they end the season with LSU and Florida - two teams I think are better than them. They are projected as a middle 6 seed, so there's a decent chance they fall to a 7 with a loss there. At the same time I don't think they win or make a run in the SEC Tournament. Yes, getting Jeremiah Tillmon back is huge, but I'm simply not sold on this team.
Pick: Yes +110
Xavier is a WEIRD team man. They currently are 12-5 and sub-60 on KenPom and 58 on the NET. You don't see that too often. They have that blowout win over Oklahoma to bank on but have lost to Providence and St. John's 2 of the last 3 games. More importantly we're going to bet on them beating Creighton at home. They blew the game at Creighton so they can play with them. They struggle defensively this year, especially on the perimeter but they actually have a damn good offense. They end at Georgetown and Marquette, which not great, but you can't lose those games. Again, a win over Creighton and they should be in the last four byes. We'll take the plus value here.
Let me know your favorite ones.