Happy Week 1, everybody. The sun is shining, the birds are chirping, and if you follow this blog series each Sunday, money will be growing on trees here soon enough.
This blog will focus on Narrative Betting, which will showcase storylines and players that may have an extra added motivation in a specific week to perform. It's very simple, really. It's just like going through a bad breakup and then seeing your ex out at the bars or club. What do you do? Maybe take a couple extra shots? Maybe try to flirt with some good looking women? Try and make them a little jealous. Regardless of what your response is, the fact of the matter is that you give a little "extra" in a situation like that. It's human nature to try harder to show you are better off now without them -- and that's my point of these blogs.
My hypothesis is that NFL players, and all athletes really, have the ability turn it up a notch when they want to. So we will be discussing anything from revenge games to reunions to past fights and everything in between. And oh baby did the NFL Schedule Makers give us a good one right out of the gate.
Sam Darnold Revenge Game
So obviously Sam Darnold was the #3 overall pick for the Jets in 2018 and was slated to be their franchise quarterback for the next 15 years. But uhhhh, I think the best word to describe his 3 years in New York would be DISASTER.
38 games, 39 interceptions. 13 wins and 25 losses. A wild case on mononucleosis. And he was on his 3rd different head coach when they traded him to Carolina for a 2nd, 4th, and 6th round pick. The point was clearly made: the Jets did not want Sam Darnold anymore.
And now Week 1 Jets @ Panthers means it's time for some sweet, sweet revenge. And the opportunity to do so is clearly there. In fact, I can't think of a better matchup to start off this blog series.
The Jets gave up the 4th most passing yards per game last season, and they didn't do much to improve their secondary this offseason. And although the Panthers had terrible quarterback play in 2020, they STILL had two 1,000 yard receivers in Robby Anderson and DJ Moore. Add in the fact that Christian McCaffery is back healthy, and toss in the addition of 2nd round pick Terrace Marshall Jr. from LSU, the Panthers basically have a 4-headed monster whenever Darnold drops back to pass.
The Jets gave up the 4th most passing yards per game last season with 275.6. Darnold's prop is 243.5.
The Jets gave up the 4th most passing TD per game last season at 2.1. Darnold's prop is 1.5, giving plus money for the over.
The Jets are 1-8 against the spread in their last nine September games. Today's date is September 12th.
The Jets are 2-6 agains the spread in their last eight road games. Today's game is in Carolina.
Robby Anderson returns to face his former team as well, but he will likely draw the toughest matchup with Bryce Hall. I don't like his player props in this reunion. This is all about Darnold.
Panthers -3.5 (1 Unit @ -110)
Sam Darnold OVER 1.5 Touchdown Passes (1 Unit @ +106)
Sam Darnold OVER 243.5 Passing Yards (1 Unit @ -113)
Narrative Betting: 0-0