Revenge Game Props: How To Bet Tom Brady's Return to New England

I guess the first question is this: who's the revenge game for? Because from what we've seen so far this year, having a little extra added motivation against your former team is worth noting when betting sides and props. Sam Darnold showed that when he hit his prop overs by halftime against the Jets, leading the Panthers to an easy cover. And then Andy Dalton was 9 for 11 for 56 yards and a touchdown before getting hurt against the Bengals, and the Bears covered as well. I'm officially IN on betting with the narrative. But the problem here is that I'd say this is a double narrative game. Brady was clearly at least somewhat soured by not getting offered the contract and money he wanted with New England, and Belichick has to feel like he is losing the "who was more important" battle after seeing Tom win a Super Bowl without him in year 1, while the Patriots went 7-9. So who does this favor? What happens when an immovable object meets an unstoppable force? I think it can favor both in different ways. Here's the bets and analysis:

Brady is averaging 362 yards per game this season, a pretty substantial jump from his 289 per game last year. I guess that's probably because he's thrown the ball 50, 36, and 55 times in each of his first three games. On the other side, the Patriots rank 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 159.7 yards per game. Is that a typo? Sheeeesh. But then again, they've played Tua (202 yds), Zach Wilson (210 yds and 4 INT), and Jameis (128 yds). Not necessarily Murderer's Row there. Brady will be the best QB the Pats have faced this season, and the Evans/Godwin will be the best receivers they've seen as well. 

But guys, don't the numbers seem like you gotta go under 308.5? I know Brady is familiar with the Patriots and all, but Belichick knows that Brady knows what Brady knows, if that makes sense. Factor in that you gotta think Brady will have some sort of nerves/feelings about the return, and I think the UNDER is a pretty damn good bet.

Brady has thrown for 4, 5, and 1 touchdowns in his first three games this season. Again, the Patriots pass defense is near the top of the league in all statistics, but two out of three games so far this year, Brady has beat the Over 2.5 by more than a touchdown. And last year, he went over 2.5 touchdowns in 9 of his 20 games, throwing 2 TDs six other times. While I like the Under on yards, I think you HAVE to bet the Over here when you see it's giving plus odds.

8 of the 20 games Brady played for the Bucs last year, he threw a pick. He's also thrown a pick in one of his three games thus far this year. I mean, you can literally say odds are Brady doesn't throw a pick. However, the odds are saying he will! UNDER 0.5 is the move here.

Alright, this is the hardest one to pick. The Bucs are clearly the better team, and Brady does have added motivation here. But this one HAS to mean more to Belichick, in my opinion. This isn't LeBron returning to Cleveland. Brady is going to have over 99.999% of fans cheering for him tomorrow night when he is introduced. But Bill Belichick took a sizable hit to his ego last year when Brady left and won it all without him, immediately. I'm not saying the Patriots win the game outright, but I do think they keep a whole lot closer than some might think. If you're giving Bill Belichick 7 points at home, I'm taking it.

Tom Brady Under 308.5 Yards

Tom Brady Over 2.5 Touchdowns

Tom Brady Under 0.5 Interceptions

Patriots +7

Bonus Narrative Bet: Kevin Stefanski returns to Minnesota for the first time after spending 14 years there as an assistant coach. Browns -1