TNF Picks and Props (11/11)
Lines:
Spread: Ravens -7.5
M/L: Ravens -385, Dolphins +290
Total: 46.5
Pick: Ravens -7.5 (-109)
The Dolphins are coming off their first win since Week 1 with momentum but is it really enough momentum to keep this game as close as a touchdown? The Ravens have struggled with teams they easily should have covered on, but I don't think that's enough to keep the line this low. This is going to be an emotional game for Marquise Brown and Lamar Jackson and they're going to want to show out in Miami. With Tua questionable coming off an injury and the chance that Brissett, who threw two interceptions against Houston last week, could be the one to face the Ravens defense on a short week's rest, I'm not going to question this pick. The Ravens have won their last three match-ups against the Dolphins by at least 30 points and are 8-2 in their last 10 match-ups. Going with the better team here.
Pick: Myles Gaskin OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The QB situation in Miami has still not been confirmed, but the Dolphins are going to struggle despite whether Tua or Brissett is starting. The Dolphins are going to want to look to a reliable target to take the pressure off this situation and I predict Gaskin will be a big one. He saw a lot of action last week against the Texans and with the Ravens allowing a good amount of receiving yardage to running backs, it would not come as a surprise if we saw that again.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+106)
With plus odds value in a game where Lamar is returning to South Florida, I'm not overthinking it. It will be raining in Miami and Lamar is going to take advantage of what he does best, running the ball. I think the Ravens will want to keep the ball on the ground early on to get an early lead in the predicted weather conditions, giving this prop the perfect opportunity to hit early on.
Pick: Marquise Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130)
Another bet I love for the value. This game is a homecoming one for Marquise Brown and the Ravens will want to help him show out back home during prime time. As for stats, this season Brown has had 6 touchdowns this season, is the target for 24% of the Ravens red zone pass attempts, and leads the team in receiving yards.
I also parlayed these for (+1400) in the Barstool Sportsbook:
https://www.barstoolsportsbook.com/bets?_p=SpTe2WDnk2PtHW4HWq2rxZ&utm_s=SpTe2WDnk2PtHW4HWq2rxZ