Week 11. Let's do this shit. You know the drill, breakdowns of the games (there are 8 this week, you're welcome), my trends for smaller games, and then my card. Let's have ourselves a Saturday.
#6 Michigan (8-1) @ Penn State (6-3), 12:00pm
Matchup: In 2020, PSU won 27-17 at Michigan. In 2019, PSU won 28-21 at home. In 2018, Michigan won 42-7 at home.
The L6 at Penn State went over. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the L7 meetings.
Michigan: #19 scoring offense at 36.2 ppg, #7 rushing offense at 234.11 ypg, #26 total offense at 451.4 ypg, #6 scoring defense at 16 ppg, #9 passing defense at 173.4 ypg, and #6 total defense at 298.1 ypg.
Penn State: has the #117 rushing offense at 107.11 ypg, #25 passing offense at 277.7 ypg, and #10 scoring defense at 16.7 ppg .
Michigan: Coming off of a 29-7 win over Indiana. Was only 17-7 going into the half, but Michigan shut them out for the second half. RB Blake Corum was injured, and is “real probable” for this weekend. Lost to Michigan State 37-33 the week before.
As the away team, 1-4 ATS and L6 went over.
As an underdog, over is 6-1.
As an away underdog, over is 5-1.
As an underdog to an unranked team, the L6 went over.
As an underdog by less than 7 points, the L5 went over.
Are 0-6 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Penn State: Coming off of a 31-14 win over Maryland. PSU held Maryland to 48 rushing yards, when they’re averaging 113 ypg. WR Jahan Dotson had 11 receptions for 242 yards, and 3 TDs; which was a school record. Had a bunch of inconsistent possessions. This win broke a 3 game losing streak. Lost to Ohio State 33-24 the week before.
L3 went under, and under is 7-2 this year.
At home, under is 4-1.
As a favorite, under is 5-1.
Against B10 schools, under is 5-1.
#8 Oklahoma (9-0) @ #13 Baylor (7-2), 12:00pm
Matchup: Oklahoma has won the L7 meetings. In 2020, OU won 27-14 at home. In 2019, OU won 30-23 in Arlington and won 34-31 at Baylor.
In the L3 meetings, Baylor covered and each went under. This is the 7th year in a row that Oklahoma is favored.
Oklahoma: has the #5 scoring offense at 42.9 ppg, #20 passing offense at 295.2 ypg, #12 total offense at 476.2 ypg, #17 rushing defense at 110.89 ypg, #114 pass defense at 272.9 ypg.
Baylor: has the #18 scoring offense at 36.3 ppg, #8 rushing offense at 231.56 ypg, #21 total offense at 457.4 ypg, and #27 scoring defense at 20.6 ppg,
Oklahoma: Coming off of a 52-21 win over Texas Tech. OU only had 72 rushing yards, when they’re averaging 181 ypg. Seems there is a growing trust in William’s arm. Caleb Williams was 23/30 for 402 yards and 6 TDs. He is learning and gaining confidence in staying in the pocket for longer. They squeaked by Kansas 35-23 the week before.
When favored by less than 7, they’re 9-0 ATS.
After a bye, under is 5-1.
Against ranked opponents, 5-0 ATS.
Against a team with a winning record, over is 4-0.
Baylor: Coming off of an 30-28 upset loss to TCU. Baylor allowed TCU to have 562 yards. TCU gave up 111 penalty yards. QB Gerry Bohanon had 2 interceptions. RB Abram Smith is #8 in averaging 117.22 rushing ypg. Between the previous 2 games, Baylor only had 1 penalty, but against TCU they had 6. Beat Texas 31-24 the week before.
Have covered the L5 at home, and over is 4-1.
As an underdog, under is 4-1.
Against ranked teams, under is 6-1.
Mississippi State (5-4) @ #17 Auburn (6-3), 12:00pm
Matchup: In 2020, Auburn won 24-10 at MS. In 2019, Auburn won 56-23 at home. In 2018, Mississippi State won 23-9 at home.
Auburn is 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings. Auburn is 5-1 ATS at home, and over is 5-1.
Mississippi State: has the #130 rush offense at 56 ypg, #4 passing offense at 376.2 ypg, #11 rushing defense at 102.11 ypg, and #20 total defense at 322.1 ypg.
Auburn: has the #24 scoring defense at 19.8 ppg.
Mississippi State: Coming off of a 31-28 loss to Arkansas. Arkansas scored the go-ahead TD with 21 seconds left, and MSU missed a game tying FG. Beat Kentucky 31-17 the week before.
As the away team, 5-1 ATS.
As an away underdog, 4-0 ATS.
After a loss, under is 7-2.
When at an SEC school, 5-0 ATS.
Auburn: Coming off of a 20-3 loss to Texas A&M. Auburn was held to 226 total yards. The only TD in the game came off of a fumble scoop and score. RB Tank Bigsby had 69 of the team’s 73 rushing yards. Beat Ole Miss 31-20 the week before.
Against SEC schools, under is 10-2.
When favored vs an SEC school, 5-0 ATS and under is 6-0.
As a favorite, 7-1 ATS.
As a home favorite, 5-1 ATS.
When favored by less than a TD, 4-0 ATS and under is 8-0.
Against a team with a winning record, 0-4 ATS and under is 5-1.
#1 Georgia (9-0) @ Tennessee (5-4), 3:30pm
Matchup: Georgia has won the L4. In 2020, won 44-21 at home. In 2019, won 43-14 at Tennessee. In 2018, won 38-12 at home.
Georgia is 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings.
Georgia: has the #14 scoring offense at 38.4 ppg, #1 scoring defense at 6.6 ppg, #2 rushing defense at 80.67, #2 passing defense at 149.6 ypg, and #2 total defense at 230.2 ypg.
Tennessee: has the #15 scoring offense at 38.2 ppg, #19 rushing offense at 217.11 ypg, #20 total offense at 457.7 ypg, and #109 passing defense at 264.7 ypg.
Georgia: Coming off of a 43-6 win over Missouri. Georgia hasn’t let up more than 13 points yet this year. JT Daniels got in the game, and was 7/11 for 82 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Georgia Georgiaed. Beat Florida 34-7 the week before.
L5 games went under.
As an away team, 4-0 ATS and over is 5-1.
Tennessee: Coming off of a 45-42 win over Kentucky. Several times Tennessee had drives under a minute, and moved with new efficiency. Hooker had a career high 4 TDs. Kentucky’s defense couldn’t stop them. Lost to Alabama 52-24 the week before.
Against teams with a winning record, under is 5-0.
Against SEC teams, over is 4-1.
When an underdog to an SEC team, 2-7 ATS.
After a win, 1-5 ATS.
As an underdog, 1-5 ATS.
As a home underdog, 1-4 ATS and under is 4-1.
As a dog by 14+, under is 4-1.
#19 Purdue (6-3) @ #5 Ohio State (8-1), 3:30pm
Matchup: In 2018, Purdue won 49-20 at home.
Purdue: has the #128 rushing offense at 76.78 ypg, #8 passing offense at 332.6 ypg, #16 scoring defense at 18.4 ppg,
Ohio State: has the #2 scoring offense at 44.9 ypg, #6 passing offense at 352.8 ypg, #2 total offense at 541.8 ypg, #19 scoring defense at 19 ppg, #16 rushing defense at 107.56 ypg, and #96 passing defense at 247.2 ypg.
Purdue: Coming off of a 40-29 upset win over Michigan State. Purdue has 17 wins over top 5 teams as an unranked team. (Now unranked, but still a notable stat.) Aiden O’Connell went 40/54 for 536 yards and 3 TDs. WR David Bell had 11 receptions for 217 yards, the next man up had 80 yards. The beat Nebraska 28-23 the week before.
As an away team, under is 4-0.
As an away underdog, 5-1 ATS and under is 11-1.
When an underdog by 14+, 6-0 ATS and under is 5-1.
Against a ranked team, 7-2 ATS and under is 4-1.
In all games since 2020, under is 11-4.
Ohio State: Coming off of a close 26-17 win over Nebraska. CJ Stroud was 36/54 for 405 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 240 yards. Was a bad second half for them, but they pulled out a win. Beat Penn State 33-24 the week before.
In games played in November, 1-5 ATS.
#11 Texas A&M (7-2) @ #15 Ole Miss (7-2), 7:00pm
Matchup: A&M has won the L3 meetings. In 2019, 24-17 at Ole Miss. In 2018, 38-24 at home. In 2017, 31-24 at Ole Miss.
The L6 meetings went under. A&M has covered the L3 meetings.
Texas A&M: has the #2 scoring defense at 14.7 ppg, #28 rushing defense at 123.11 ypg, #25 passing defense at 194.7 ypg, and #17 total defense at 317.8 ypg.
Ole Miss: has the #16 scoring offense at 37.8 ppg, #5 rushing offense at 237.89 ypg, #21 passing offense at 286.3 ypg, #4 total offense at 524.2 ypg, #108 rushing defense at 195.33 ypg, and #104 total defense at 432.7 ypg.
Texas A&M: Coming off of a 20-3 win over Auburn. Held Auburn to 226 yards, of which 73 were rushing. Just overall shut Auburn’s offense down. Beat South Carolina 44-14 the game before.
Have covered their L4 games.
As an away team, 5-0 ATS and over is 8-2.
When favored by less than a TD, under is 5-1.
As an away favorite, 8-0 ATS and under is 7-1.
Ole Miss: Coming off of a 27-14 win over Liberty. They were helped by Malik Willis throwing 3 interceptions, no TDs, and was sacked 9 times. There are some questions about what receivers will be available this weekend. Lost to Auburn 31-20 the week before.
Their L4 games went under, and under is 6-3 for the season.
After a win, the L4 went under.
As an underdog, 0-4 ATS and under is 4-0.
When an underdog by less than 7, the L7 went under.
Against a team with a winning record, under is 4-0.
#16 NC State (7-2) @ #12 Wake Forest (8-1), 7:30pm
Matchup: In 2020, NC won 45-42 at home. In 2019, Wake won 44-10 at home. In 2018, Wake won 27-23 in Kentucky.
When at Wake, Wake is 9-1 ATS. When Wake comes into the matchup after a loss, over is 5-1.
NC State: has the #24 passing offense at 278.1 ypg, #6 scoring defense at 16 ppg, #8 rushing defense at 99.22 ypg, and #19 total defense at 320.1 ypg.
Wake Forest: has the #3 scoring offense at 44.7 ppg, #11 passing offense at 321.1 ypg, #8 total offense at 508.8 ypg, #121 rushing defense at 216.11 ypg, and #105 total defense at 435.4 ypg.
NC State: Coming off of a 28-14 win over FSU. NC State had 86 rushing yards and FSU had 38. Leary matched a season high with 4 TDs. Held FSU to 2 of 16 on 3rd down conversions. Beat Louisville 28-13 the week before.
As an underdog, 4-1 ATS and over is 6-0-1.
Against ranked teams, 1-6 ATS and over is 4-0.
Against ACC schools, 5-1 ATS.
When an underdog to ACC schools, over is 6-0-1.
Are 8-0 ATS after having 280+ yards passing in their previous game.
Wake Forest: Coming off of a 58-55 loss to UNC. Both teams had over 100 yards of penalties. Allowed UNC’s Ty Chandler to have 213 rushing yards and 4 TDs, and Howell to have 100+ rushing yards. Beat Duke 45-7 the week before.
At home, 9-2 ATS and under is 5-1.
When a favorite by less than a TD, over is 6-1.
Against ACC schools at home, 8-0 ATS.
After a loss, over is 4-0.
Have SU won their L8 home games.
#9 Notre Dame (8-1) @ Virginia (6-3), 7:30pm
Matchup: In 2019, ND won 35-20 at home.
Notre Dame: is #118 in sacks allowed per game at 3.11.
Virginia: has the #11 scoring offense at 38.9 ppg, #2 passing offense at 401 ypg, #1 total offense at 545.2 ypg, #102 scoring defense at 30.8 ppg, #122 rushing defense at 219.11 ypg, #95 pass defense at 247.1 ypg, and #122 total defense at 466.2 ypg.
Notre Dame: Coming off of a 34-6 win over Navy. Held them to 184 total yards, of which only 18 were passing. Just a gross game. Jack Coan was 23/29 for 269 yards with only 1 TD. Lost their 3rd WR (in yardage) for the season due to an ACL tear. Beat UNC 44-34 the week before.
Have covered their L4 games.
When a favorite by less than a TD, 6-1 ATS.
After holding an opponent to under 7 points, are 0-8 ATS.
Against unranked teams, 5-0 ATS.
Virginia: QB Brennan Armstrong is listed as day to day. He injured his ribs 2 weeks ago vs BYU. Come off of a bye week. Lost to BYU 66-49 the week before. UVA let up 734 yards offense and 2 interceptions. BYU RB had 266 rushing yards for 5 TDs, and couldn’t be stopped. Virginia has a very good offense, but no defense in sight. Beat Georgia Tech 48-40 the week before.
After a bye, 6-1 ATS and 6-0 ATS with a rest advantage.
Against ranked teams, over is 6-1.
In November, 5-0 ATS and over is 9-1.
My trends for some of the smaller games:
Week 11 Picks (so far)
Oklahoma -5.5 🔒
Texas A&M/Ole Miss u57.5
Northwestern TT u7.5
Penn State +1.5
More will be posted on my Twitter, I'm still building my card. If you do gamble, please do so responsibly.