Five "Feel It In My Plums" Picks - NFL Week 12 BONUS - Kelly In Vegas & Marco Piemonte Plays

3-2 last week moving us to 27-29 on the season.

Going to break through the .500 mark today though. You can bet your ass on that. I can feel these ones deep down in my plums.

NY Jets at HOUSTON TEXANS -2.5

HOUSTON LAYING A FIELD GOAL TO SOMEBODY THIS SEASON?! I know. Gotta instantly go the other way right? 

Wrong.

Red flag city.

Giphy Images.

Houston's defense is rolling.

With Zach Wilson back from a knee injury for the Jets, they should feast in the turnover department. 

Houston shocked the world to beat the Titans last week thanks to a five-turnover performance by its D. 

Wilson struggled with ball security and is tied for fourth in interceptions (9) even after sitting out a month. Other young skill players have blossomed in his absence, including receiver Elijah Moore and running back Michael Carter, who is out with an ankle injury. 

The Texans are 5-5 against the spread despite being 2-8 straight up. The Jets' defense is a disaster, though, allowing 171.3 rushing yards per game over their last three. Wilson’s rust, Carter’s absence, and the defense’s problems should allow Houston to cover.

• NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
• NY Jets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles at NEW YORK GIANTS +3.5

Everybody in the world is on the Eagles in this one. And for good reason. The Giants (3-7), allow 119.7 rushing yards per game. The Giants offense scores a mere 18.9 points per game.

BUT, getting rid of Jason Garrett will be big-time addition by subtraction for this Giants' offense. The last two times New York suited up as a home dog, they took out the Raiders and Panthers in outright wins. Yes, the Eagles are coming off a 40-point outburst and are at the top of their market value. I think Saquan Barkley is going to be well-rested and effective after 10 days off. Take the points.

• Philadelphia are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against NY Giants.
• Philadelphia are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games on the road.
• NY Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference East division.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +3

This could be a huge letdown spot for the Colts after embarrassing the Bills in Buffalo last week. The Bucs, with their #1 passing attack and #1 scoring offense, come in favored despite going 0-5 ATS on the road this season. But I’m taking the points with the Colts, who are riding a three-game win streak and full of confidence. I've been riding this team the past few weeks and not stopping now. Oh yah, they also lead the NFL with a +15 turnover margin when no one else has more than +9. Colts continue to cover in this one.

• Tampa Bay are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Indianapolis.
• Tampa Bay are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
• Tampa Bay are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis.
• Indianapolis are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.

ATLANTA FALCONS -2 at Jacksonville Jaguars 

Cordarrelle Patterson should be back from his ankle injury, giving Atlanta's offense a much-needed boost. Remember him going off the first month of this season? He's posted four games with 100-plus yards from scrimmage. For the Jags, wideout/kick-returner Jamal Agnew went on injured reserve, while top corner Shaquill Griffin is in the concussion protocol. It's good value on an Atlanta team that just faced two of the NFL's top teams in Dallas and New England. Yes, they've been outscored 68-3 during that two game stretch. But we're talking two of the best teams in the league, and the Falcons have looked like a solid team at times this year, particularly against other bad teams. And that's definitely what Jacksonville is. They're fucking awful. The Jaguars' run defense had been improving before getting gashed by the 49ers, but Atlanta doesn't run the ball anyway. I like Matt Ryan in a matchup versus the struggling Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville is one of the few defenses where I'm not sure they can slow down Atlanta's offensive attack. 

• Atlanta are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against Jacksonville.
• Atlanta are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Jacksonville.
• Atlanta are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.
• Jacksonville are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference South division.

CAROLINA PANTHERS -2 at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are coming off their 3rd straight win but were only able to score 24 points against a pathetic Jets defense and never really pulled away. Now they face an elite Panthers defense that needs to be attacked on the ground, but Miami doesn't run the ball effectively. The Dolphins offense is in for a similar day to the Bills game, and it's tough to win if you're not scoring points. The Miami defense is on a run of strong play after the secondary got healthy, but facing an offense that runs through Christian McCaffrey is a different type of challenge. Despite a handful of losses, the Panthers feel like the much better team right now. I think Tua Tagovailoa will struggle against Carolina's elite pass defense. The Panthers rank second in pressure rate, and they typically shut down tight ends. That's huge considering how often Tagovailoa looks for Mike Gesicki and the other tight ends.

Miami’s pass defense is still the worst in the league, and the team has rushed for 100 yards only three times. If Carolina takes care of the ball and handles Miami’s aggressive blitzes, the Panthers should win.

• Carolina are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games on the road.

Here are Kelly's plays

And Marco's 

(waiting to be updated)

Best of luck, wager wisely, and bet responsibly.

LET THE BOY WATCH