3-2 last week moving us to 33-38 on the year. This week's another shit show and clearly have had the vision of a blind man this year, so again, take what you will from this week's picks.
TENNESSEE TITANS +.5 At Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have been outscored 78-16 in the first half of its past four games. If Pittsburgh comes out slow again, they'll have a hard time coming back against Tennessee's above-average defense.
Bud Dupree has been activated and will face his former team. Look for Tennessee to run the ball effectively with D'Onta Foreman (the Steelers rank 30th in rush defense per DVOA) as the Titans improve to 6-1 ATS in their last seven as underdogs.
- Tennessee are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.
- Pittsburgh are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.
Seattle Seahawks at LA RAMS -6
The Rams added more than two dozen players to the Covid-19 list earlier this week, which prompted the game being moved to Tuesday. With the team in enhanced mitigation protocols, most work is being done remotely, potentially hampering the team’s momentum coming off a big Monday night win against the Cardinals.
The Seahawks have won their last two games, including a game in which they allowed over 300 passing yards to the freaking Texans. Doing so against this Stafford and Kupp offense won’t produce the same result, though. Even with the coronavirus disruptions, the Rams should win this one easily.
- Seattle are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against LA Rams.
Cincinnati Bengals at DENVER BRONCOS -2.5
The slumping Bengals put right tackle Riley Reiff on injured reserve and starting cornerback Chidobe Awuzie on the COVID list. Now they travel to Mile High to face a Broncos team that's won four of their last six. Broncos rookie Javonte Williams (leg) is expected to play. Teddy Bridgewater will take care of the ball and Cincy's explosive passing attack is gonna struggle somewhat versus Denver's strong secondary.
- Cincinnati are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
- Denver are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
DALLAS COWBOYS -11 at New York Giants
Two words for you. Mike Glennon.
Last weekend the Cowboy's defense took over against Washington and lead them to victory. This week, they face a Mike Glennon-led offense that struggles to score and sustain drives. I expect the Cowboy's defense to have an encore performance, while their offense, in particular Dak Prescott, will have a bounce-back week. Also, Cowboys fans have travelled en masse to New York for this game so expect the Meadowlands to sound like Jerry World.
- Dallas are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.
- Dallas are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against NY Giants.
- Dallas are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road.
Atlanta Falcons at SAN FRANSISCO 49ers -9
Deebo Samuel practiced fully this week after being hampered in Week 14. Fred Warner, the 49ers' most important defensive player, also is primed for a big game after dealing with an ankle injury.
When the Falcons step up in class, they usually get hammered. I.E. their 40-point loss in Dallas, their 25-0 blanking at the hands of New England, and a pair of double-digit defeats to Tampa Bay.
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS versus winning teams.
The 49ers are putting it all together for a playoff run and should win by double digits in this one.
- San Francisco are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
Here are Kelly's plays for today -
LET THE BOY WATCH
Happy wagering. Gamble responsibly.