Oh hell yeah. We're a day away from March and I can't stop staring at brackets. All day I'm humming the CBS college basketball song. All day I'm breaking down hypothetical 2nd round NCAA Tournament matchups. You know why? Because of the Barstool Sportsbook. You can officially bet on team seed lines which is flat out awesome. Nice way to get ready for Selection Sunday which is under 2 weeks away.
Trying to figure out seeds is always a fun debate. Shit, been doing it with Providence fans mostly for the last couple of weeks. You have to try and use some historical evidence combined with guessing what the hell this version of the committee will do. Luckily we have the top-16 reveal from a couple weeks ago and a ton of different numbers out there.
I can't stress how awesome it is that the Sportsbook is offering this sort of bet. I looked through it all and tried to find some that I liked. Here's what we got.
Note: Under means you think they'll get a better seed.
Pick: Under 5
There is arguably no hotter team in the country right now. Weird to not see a hook here, but we're going to take the under. Why? They have 2 quad 1 games to end the regular season. Home against LSU and at Tennessee. Throw in the fact they'll likely draw one of Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee in the SEC semis if everything holds serve and they have a chance for another notable game. It's not a lock for them to be a 4 seed. They have to jump a few teams, but the fact they have two Quad 1 games left helps.
Alright so I put all three of these teams here together for a reason. Look at the odds for all the unders. All plus value, feels like two of them should be a 1 seed. The question is what two. Baylor ends at Texas and home to Iowa State. Kansas ends at TCU, home to TCU and home to Texas. Auburn ends at Mississippi State and home to South Carolina. Obviously in terms of games they should win, Auburn has the inside path. Baylor/Kansas have a chance for more notable wins. It's a complete guess here but I feel confident in saying two of these three will be a 1 seed. Remember the committee had Auburn as the 2nd overall seed, Kansas as the 4, Baylor as the 5 during the top-16 reveal a couple weeks ago. So we'll go with this.
Auburn Under 1.5 +200
Baylor Under 1.5 +175
Alright, let's talk about the Cats. The loss to Arkansas was whatever but it does now feel like they are a 2 spot. It's been talked about for years but the SEC Tournament final tends to not matter much in terms of seeding. It's just far too late where the committee basically has their mind made up and the bracket filled out. Game tomorrow against Ole Miss doesn't do anything to improve seeding and then at Florida may help, but would need to jump two of those three teams I listed above. Obviously we saw a ton of mayhem this past weekend, but it feels hard to see that all happening again.
Pick: Over 1.5
Okay Providence here we are. Everyone talking about luck, record, analytics all that shit. That's why we're seeing the same odds for o/u 4.5. Personally? It feels like they are a 4. They have wins at Wisconsin and against Texas Tech that are really carrying weight from early in the year. Then they win the Big East and it helps raise the floor of where they can end up. I know they have to go to Nova soon and I would not be surprised if Nova wins that. They seem locked into a 4 seed. I don't know how they drop lower than that barring something drastic happening. I know their analytics are whatever. But the committee still had them at 15 overall. They haven't done anything to drop from there.
Pick: Under 4.5
I really like this Illinois team mostly thanks to what Alfonso Plummer is doing. He legit might be the best shooter in the country now. Now that said, I still think Illinois ends up as a 4 seed. It's going to be close, but I gotta take a bet somewhere. They have one quad 1 game left against Iowa in the regular season before conference tournament time. Looking at some of the higher ranked bracketologists out there, they tend to lean with Illinois at a 4. It's split, but it's out there. Can the refs legit learn how to officiate Kofi though?
Pick: Over 3.5