Awesome week last weekend, going 2-0, Saturday, 5-0 Sunday, and 3-1 on Thursday night. That makes us 11-4 in my "Plums" picks, and 14-5 overall in NFL. Looking to keep the momentum going heading into a week 4 board I gotta be honest, I really don’t love.
Actually, I hate it.
But I didn’t initially…
Read on to get what I mean.
Here are my plays for Week 4. Remember to bet responsibly on the Barstool Sportsbook.
L.A. Chargers at Houston Texans +5.5 (45)
I don't love this game, but to be honest I don't think I love any games this week. It's more of a process of elimination this week to select 5 games to wager on.
If 100% healthy, LA is probably a double-digit favorite here. But they are decimated by injuries right now - Out for sure: DE Joey Bosa, OT Rashawn Slater and WR Keenan Allen. Questionable: C Corey Linsley and TE Donald Parham Jr. These guys are kind of a big deal. Herbert will start, but his ribs are still beat to shit so he's not the Justin Herbert of MVP caliber or anything even close to that.
Not to mention, the Texans defense is legit. Their opponents' pass completion rate (55.1%), the league's second-best while its sacks total is fifth most. Also, the Chargers are a big 0-3 under coach Brandon Staley as away favorites.
Davis Mills hit 21 of 27 throws for 254 yards and two TDs with no INTs. It was part of a pattern in which Mills plays much better at home (14 TDs, 1 INT) than on the road (5 TDs, 11 INTs). Take the points here.
The play = Houston Texans +5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles -6 (45.5)
Remember how I mentioned I hated this week's board? Well here's a perfect example of it.
Sure, Jacksonville has impressed over their first three games, particularly on defense. Their quality rush defense could cause issues for Philly. But the Eagles' offense ranks first in pass yards per play, a credit to Jalen Hurts' growth as a QB.
Philly is also No. 1 in defensive pass yards per play, and the Eagles have a great argument for being the best team in the NFL over the first three weeks.
The Jaguars have a brutal travel disadvantage here, coming off a trip to L.A. last week. And don't forget they lost to the Commanders, a team Philly just manhandled, before their impressive two-week run. This line should be way higher than 6. Yet it's not…
Also, the Eagles pass rush is the real fucking deal. Trevor Lawrence has looked great this season…. When he's not under a heavy pass rush. IN FACT, Lawrence has the greatest disparity so far this year in terms of QBs perform great when they have time and aren't pressured vs. QBs who are pressured. Philly is gonna make this a bad day for Trevor.
The Play = Eagles -6
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys -3 (41.5)
The Dallas Cowboys lead the league with 13 sacks. The Washington Commanders have allowed a league-leading 15 sacks.
Carson Wentz was sacked nine times by the Eagles, and now center Wes Schweitzer remains in concussion protocol. If Schweitzer can't play, the Commanders would be down to their third-string center. Michael Gallup appears set to return for Dallas, which had everyone practicing Thursday except for Dak Prescott. Cooper Rush has a 91.8 passer rating, and the running game should excel against a Washington defense, that's allowing 5.4 yards per carry.
The Commanders aren't as bad as they've looked the past two games, but I really liked a Dallas squad that would improve to 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. division foes… Until the week unfolded.
I'll tell you why I HATE this game and this play now. Because some places are seeing 10x the amount of bets coming in on the Cowboys than the Commanders.
Everyone, and I mean everyone, is on Dallas' dick this week. In fact, its the third heaviest bet team this weekend. And the line has only moved half a point. Which 99 times out of 100 usually means it's a rat…
But it was too late for me as I entered this play in early in the week for my Supercontest ticket. Thats the way I roll with these plays so I'm stuck with it.
The play = Cowboys -3
Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons +1 (47.5)
The Falcons were finally able to put a team away and get their first win of the year last week, but it was a Seattle team that is likely one of, if not the worst in the league.
And the Falcons' defense was terrible, as it has been all month, allowing 6.1 yards per play to Geno Smith and company.
Atlanta might show signs of life, but this is still one of the more garbage tams in the league, and the Browns are a premier squared, even with an average Jacoby Brissett under center, looking like a solid QB.
The Brown's defense has been solid against the run so far, and even if the Falcons offense continues to move the ball, Brissett is proving good enough to exploit bad defenses. I think this line should be Browns -4 or -4/5 here so I love this value here.
The play = Browns -1
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 (46)
It wasn't easy spotting 5 games to roll with this weekend. Case in point is the fact I'm taking a Bucs team here that has looked like a shell of its former self so far this season.
Sure there's nothing wrong with the Bucs' defense, (which allows an NFL-low 0.75 points per drive). And Tampa Bay should limit a Chiefs' attack that hasn't looked as dynamic since their opening game week 1 in Arizona.
The Bucs' offense gets a huge boost this week with Mike Evans' return from suspension. (huge)
Plus, Julio Jones and Russell Gage are practicing on a limited basis. Chris Godwin's status is trending towards playing, so it looks like TB12 should have all his weapons.
Not to mention he is coming off a loss here. I'll back the Bucs at home in a close one.
The play = Buccaneers +1
Good luck everybody, and remember to bet responsibly on the Barstool Sportsbook!
LET THE BOY WATCH