5-0 Last Week, 48-30-3 on The Season, Finishing With A Bang In Week 18. Loving The Underdogs, Especially The Titans Tonight, The Lions And Chargers Tomorrow. Week 18 Bets I Can Feel In My Plums
Big week last week hitting all 5. Got me right back in the decent money for the Super Contest. Hopefully, you parlayed and had a nice cash-out. 48-30-3 on the year with a chance to go up +20 this weekend, before heading into the wild cards which is shooting fish in a barrel. Let's run it.
Remember to bet responsibly on the Barstool Sportsbook.
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Giphy Images.Tennessee Titans (7-9, 8-7 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8, 8-8 ATS) -6 (40)
The last time these two teams played, Lawrence smoked them for 368 yards and three scores while completing 30-of-42 pass attempts. Everybody is loving the Jags.
Tennessee has one of the worst secondaries in football, but they're impossible to run on. I think Vrabel finds a way to make Etienne and Jacksonville's ground game beat them tonight.
Speaking of horrible pass defenses, I don't care if its Josh Dobbs or Warren Moon under center, Jacksonville is giving up big yards. Huge chunk plays. Their pass defense rates as one of the NFL’s worst at 29th in DVOA, and Jacksonville will no doubt sell out in an attempt to limit Derrick Henry. But to no avail. They can stack the box all they want, he will still run wild over them like he has every year.
Tennessee has had a week and a half off, after playing on Thursday in Week 17. They also have a huge edge in terms of experience in a playoff-like atmosphere at the NFL level. Vrabel will have them ready to punch their spot to the post season tonight.
THE PLAY = Tennessee +6
Titans 23
Jaguars 21
p.s. -
Detroit Lions (8-8, 11-5 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (8-8, 8-8 ATS) -5.5 (49)
A lot in this game depends on whether Seattle wins or loses earlier in the day.
If Seattle loses, I love the Lions even more, as they're playing for their first trip to the postseason this century.
But even if they lose, I think Dan Campbell has motivated this team to a point where they've gone out there the past two seasons and played their asses off for pride. Not something easy to get your guys to do every single week. (Looking at you Arizona).
Unlike past years, this Lions team actually matches up well with Green Bay, and I see Detroit winning the battle of the trenches and keeping this game close to cover. Sadly, there's no chance the league or officials let Green Bay lose in Lambeau on prime time. Don't be shocked if the Lions catch another classic screw job in this one.
THE PLAY = Lions +6 (Buy the hook)
Lions 23
Packers 27
L.A. Chargers (10-6, 10-5 ATS) at Denver Broncos (4-12, 7-9 ATS) -3 (40)
The Chargers have won five of six and are playing for night-and-day playoff positioning in this one. A loss drops them to a sixth seed in the AFC and sends them to play Buffalo or Cincinnati in the first round. A win secures a #5 seed, meaning a first-rounder at Jacksonville or Tennessee.
The fucked up part is that on Thursday, the league announced the Ravens-Bengals game will be played at 1 p.m. ET, meaning LA could clinch the #5 seed before they kick off at 4:25 p.m. ET. The line moved drastically (it flipped) because the Chargers might sit their starters. But I can't see this Denver team getting up no matter what, given this absolutely miserable season.
I'm not letting that change my mind on this one.
With a healthy Joey Bosa back, this Chargers' pass rush is elite. They will light Russell Wilson up in this one.
And the Chargers' offense has also been elite now with Mike Williams healthy and taking regular snaps.
Chargers big in this one.
THE PLAY= Chargers +3
Chargers 28
Broncos 16
Dallas Cowboys (12-4, 10-6 ATS) at Washington Commanders (7-8, 7-8 ATS) +7.5 (40)
Sam Howell was a stud in the preseason. The locker room loved him, and still loves him. Everyone is dumping on Washington for starting him and "throwing in the towel" in this one, but real ones know that Terry McLaurin and the rest of the teams leaders pushed for Howell to get this opportunity, and they will be fired up for him, and to play spoiler, and fuck Dallas up in possibly clinching the division.
The Commanders' defense is legit. Dallas is perilously thin along their offensive line’s interior. Dallas' offense has been shaky, especially Dak the pick machine, and there's a chance Philly is blowing out the Giants and Dallas decides to rest their starters in the 2nd half. 7-7.5 points is a lot.
THE PLAY = Washington +7.5
Cowboys 27
Commanders 21
Carolina Panthers (6-10, 8-8 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (7-9, 7-9 ATS) -3.5 (42)
Interim coach Steve Wilks deserves coach of the year nods. He took over a team in a free fall and has this team playing respectable, commendable football. You can tell the players like him and like playing for him.
As good as this Saints team has also been playing lately, they're not as good as everybody thinks they are for beating a Jalen Hurts-less Philly team.
This line is inflated because of that.
Carolina is 4-3 in their last seven games. Those three losses all came by 10 points or less, with two of them coming against playoff teams. They are also 7-3 ATS vs. New Orleans in the last 10.
I think the Saints win, but Carolina keeps it close.
THE PLAY = Panthers +3.5
Panthers 18
Saints 21
Good luck to everybody! Remember to bet responsibly on the Barstool Sportsbook.
LET THE BOY WATCH
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