NFL 2023 Week 1 Bets I Can Feel In My Plums

Ok we're back ladies and gentlemen. Week 1 of the NFL season is upon us officially. Each week I pick 5 games for my Vegas Super Contest entry that my dad and I have participated in the past 3 years. Finished in the money 2 out of the last 3 years, last year hitting 62% going 61-35-4. 

If you didn't get my team total picks this year, here they are again.

Now onto the week 1 plays. 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts +5 (O/U 45.5)

I'll keep this one short and sweet, the public loves the Jags. Your best friend who loses his shirt every week loves the Jags. Colts are a divisional home dog. Week 1 trends tend to favor them. Yah I know this team is pretty bad, but their offensive line is excellent and I think they can keep this one close by holding on to the ball and pounding it. 

THE PLAY = Colts +5

Jaguars 23
Colts 19

Tennessee Titans At New Orleans Saints -3 (41.5)

Tennessee's defensive woes, especially their abortion of a pass rush, are behind them. They were the most banged up injured team defense in the league last year. They're back and healthy this year so expect to see a much more respectable D. Vrabel thrives in underdog situations, 20-20 straight up and 23-16-1 against the spread. I really, really like this Saints team, but I think it will take them a few weeks to figure it out and get acclimated with Carr. I think Henry goes off today and the Titans feast.

THE PLAY = Titans +3

Titans 21
Saints 20

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (41.5)

I liked this Steelers play a lot more earlier in the week before the entire world did. Everybody is on them today which makes me think this line should have moved more than it did. My Super Contest pick was locked in a couple days ago so I'm stuck, so I'm going to convince myself they still pull this off as home dogs.

First off, buy the half a point if you can. An extra 10 bucks per hundred dollars of your bet is the easiest and best insurance you can buy. There is NOTHING worse than losing on a hook. Nothing. Just in case here. I think Pittsburgh wins outright but playing it safe.

Secondly, the Steelers posted an impressive 8-2 record with Watt on the field. He's back and raring to go today. 

The 49ers have a new defensive coordinator, a questionable George Kittle, and a recovering Brock Purdy. I like Pittsburgh outright.

THE PLAY = Pittsburgh +3

49ers 21
Steelers 23

Miami Dolphins At LA Chargers -3 (51)

Miami has a few big injuries they're dealing with today, notably their LT Terron Armstead. I think they take heat off Tua and the pass rush by feeding Mostert more than usual today and running the ball. The Chargers were TERRIBLE at containing the run last year on defense and don't think they made any improvements this year. (May want to look at Raheem Mostert OVER 56.5 Total Rushing Yards prop)

I think Miami keeps this one really close.

THE PLAY = Miami +3

Dolphins 23
Chargers 24

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots +3.5 (44.5)

This Patriots offense is still a giant question mark. They have an unsteady offensive line, a shaky QB, and are going against what might be the most ferocious defense in the league now. The Eagles are a team that boasts strength and depth on both sides of the ball and can score in bunches. I think they light it up and rain on Tom Brady's parade today sadly. 

THE PLAY = Eagles -3.5 (won't need the hook)

Eagles 31
Patriots 17


I also like Colts vs. Jaguars UNDER 45.5 for the reasons I mentioned above, the Colts will eat up clock and keep the ball out of Lawrence's hands.

Good luck to everybody! Reminder to bet responsibly!