Welcome back to the Stats lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday afternoon).
After a rough start to the season that stats have gotten better and are now at 12-13 for the year. Let's get above .500 this week.
Atlanta Falcons (3-3, 1-5 ATS) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2, 3-2 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
This is a bit of a wonky stat but you can't deny the evidence. Desmond Ridder has not covered a first half spread in his NFL career, he’s 0-10 ATS in the first half. I don't know what makes him and Atlanta start so slow but the proof is in the pudding. You can get Bucs -0.5 1st half for -115 on the Barstool Sportsbook
The Stats Say: Bucs 1H -0.5
Detroit Lions (5-1, 5-1 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-2, 4-2 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
It's just not smart to bet against the Detroit Lions right now. The Lions have covered 14 of their last 16 games. As an underdog, they’ve covered 15 of their last 20 games. They've won 5 straight games OUTRIGHT as a road dog. The Ravens, meanwhile, have covered just 2 of their last 11 home games.
The Stats Say: Lions
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2, 3-2 ATS) @ Los Angeles Rams (3-3, 4-1-1 ATS)
4:05 PM on FOX
This is a trend I'd been noticing for awhile but now have the data to back it up. Road dogs of 3 points or less are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games. I feel like it often happens where there are two equal-ish teams and the home team just blindly gets 3 points for being home. But I like to bet on the road team in these situations. And we all know about Mike Tomlin as an underdog. The Steelers are 14-3-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or less.
The Stats Say: Steelers
Los Angeles Chargers (2-3, 1-3-1 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (5-1, 4-2 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
This total is just too high. The Chiefs do not find themselves in shootouts like they used to. 8 of their last 10 games have had under 48.5 points. And divisional unders are usually a good bet, hitting at 59% in the last 32 matchups.
The Stats Say: Under
Miami Dolphins (5-1, 5-1 ATS) @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-1, 3-2-1 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
Points, points, points. In Jalen Hurts last 14 home games, the over has hit 12 times. And on the other side of things, the Dolphins have gone over in 9 of their last 11 road games with an average of 57 PPG. This will just be a fun game to bet the over anyway and thankfully the data backs it up.
The Stats Say: Over
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.