Welcome back to the Stats lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday afternoon).
The stats have been on fire lately and have gotten me above .500 after an awful start to the season. My YTD record is 18-17.
Miami Dolphins (6-2, 6-2 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-2, 5-3 ATS)
9:30 AM on NFL Network (Germany)
As a favorite of 3 points or less, Patrick Mahomes is 14-4-1 ATS. He’s also 16-3 SU coming off a loss in his career. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have struggled against better teams and could be on fraud watch. They'v lost 6 straight games on the road against winning teams (1-5 ATS).
The Stats Say: Chiefs
Minnesota Vikings (4-4, 4-3-1 ATS) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-4, 2-6 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
The Vikings may not have Kirk Cousins or Justin Jefferson, but this is still a big number for the Falcons to cover. Atlanta has played 42 games under Arthur Smith. You want to know how many games they've won by more than 4 points? SIX. 6 out of 42. And he’s just 3-9 ATS as a favorite of more than 2 points.
The Stats Say: Vikings
Seattle Seahawks (5-2, 3-3-1 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (6-2, 5-3 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
In their last 18 games as a favorite of more than 3 points, the Ravens are just 4-14 ATS. On the other side of things, the Seahawks are 22-7 ATS when getting more than 3 points. Seems like a good combination to take Seattle. This seems like just too many points for Seattle to be getting with how well they've been playing.
The Stats Say: Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys (5-2, 5-2 ATS) @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-1, 4-2-2 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
Home field matters a lot in this divisional rivalry. The home team has covered in 8 of the last 9 matchups between these two teams. Jalen Hurts has also covered 8 straight home games as a favorite of less than a touchdown.
The Stats Say: Eagles
Buffalo Bills (5-3, 3-5 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-3, 3-3-1 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
If you think it's rare to see Buffalo getting points, you would be correct. In fact, the Bills have not been an underdog since December of 2021. Just a casual two years. But when the Bills do get points, they usually cover. osh Allen covers 70% of the time as an underdog for his career (16-7-2 ATS).
The Stats Say: Bills
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.