It's Time For The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational At Bay Hill Club & Lodge

David Cannon. Getty Images.

Note from Banks: It has been a while since I've posted one of these for a non-major, but am looking to get back in the swing of things. Masters approaching, elevated event, no better time to get back on the horse. More to come. Enjoy.

It's time for Arnie's tournament! Welcome to one of the Tour's most iconic stops - Bay Hill Club in Orlando, FL. 

This tournament has a lot of rich history. It holds invitational status and now "signature event" status, much like the Tiger's tournament at the Genesis a couple weeks ago. That means a limited field of 72 golfers and yet again, a big ol purse of $20 million is up for grabs, including $4M to the winner. 

Speaking of Tiger, this is also a tournament that he's historically dominated at. There are a handful of tracks that were on his annual schedule that he just obliterated fields at. Torrey Pines, Firestone CC, Augusta National, Muirfield Village, and Bay Hill are all courses that Tiger won 5+ times at, with Bay Hill leading the way with 8 wins. 

Some of his most iconic celebrations came here, including his first win in 2009 after the reconstructive knee surgery to repair the injury he played through at the 2008 US Open:

Tiger won't be teeing it up this week as he continues to work his way back from his latest surgery, but he will be coaching Jupiter Links up tonight as they fight their way towards a playoff in the TGL. 9 pm on that. Don't be late.

This tournament always bring the heat down the stretch, despite not having ended in a playoff this century. 13 of the past 20 tournaments have come down to a single stroke and last year was no different with Russell Henley juuust edging out 54-hole leader Collin Morikawa by a single stroke.

It was his chip-in on 16 for eagle (which the main broadcast inexplicably missed in real time) that really was the difference maker.

No better example of golf being a game of inches… if it misses the pin entirely, it's off the green and Henley works hard just to make par. If it hits the pin but not square, maybe it's a kick-in birdie and we're talking about a playoff. But sometimes it's just your day and last year, that was true for Henley.

Last year's leaderboard and recent winners….

2025 Leaderboard

Recent Winners

The Course

Bay Hill is a par 72 measuring 7,466 yards on the pro scorecard this week. It was designed by Dick Wilson in 1961, who designed a handful of other notorious Florida courses such as PGA National and TPC Blue Monster at Doral. Arnold Palmer purchased the club and lodge in 1974 and his family has owned it ever since, with this tournament starting in 1979. 

It's well known for the role the water hazards play, which is surprising when you hear that water is only in play on 9 of its holes. Many of them force the players to make decisions based on both club choice and line, especially the 3rd and 6th. The rough is typically pretty gnarly and I've heard that's especially true this week.

In terms of what skillset plays best here, there is not a course on Tour with a larger emphasis on Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. I would attribute that more to driving accuracy than distance, mainly due to that aforementioned water. Long iron play is also a premium, with the shortest of the par 3's clocking in at 196 yards and the other three measuring over 215 yards. The greens are bermuda and are typically lightning fast, which tends to favor the more skilled putters on Tour. 18 is one of the great finishing holes with the water right and the pin usually tucked on the right on Sunday.

Best Hole - 6th Hole, Par 5 555 yards (… or is it?) 

This is a whale of a hole where something interesting almost always happens. The lake that separates the 3rd and 6th holes is nearly a perfect circle. If the circle were to be a clock, the back tee box is at about 7 o'clock and the green is at 12, roughly a mere 350 yards away on a straight line. This creates a fascinating dilemma in terms of what line the players take off the tee. Obviously the further left your line, the more water and risk you take on. But if you take too conservative a line, you can easily hit through the fairway and leave yourself another risky dilemma based on your angle at the green for your 2nd shot. I can't really think of another hole on tour that is designed so simply while also being completely unique in the way it challenges the players. 

Of course, this hole was the center of attention in 2021 as Bryson took on a completely different line as the rest of the field

And of course, we had the historic blow-up by John Daly back in '98.

I doubt we see anyone give the green a go again anytime soon, especially in a tournament here where there's no cut (meaning nobody can just say YOLO on Friday when they're way outside the cut line).

I also can never help but to throw this in this section… Emiliano Grillo's club toss on this hole was an all-timer.

The Weather

Could be a wet one! That may take the teeth out of these greens a bit, but may also muck up some rough that is already pretty gnarly. Not too worried about getting all the golf in given the smaller fields where they can make it work if need be.

TV Coverage

Only natural for this to be an NBC and Golf Channel show, as it always is. People forget Arnold Palmer invented the Golf Channel.

The Trophy/Sweater

Richard Heathcote. Getty Images.

This is some good looking hardware. That's not just some little golfer on top. That's the King with his classic high helicopter follow through. I've always said I love trophies that capture the fabric of a given tournament and this does that in a big way. And speaking of fabric, starting in 2017 after Arnold's passing you also get one of his iconic red cardigan sweaters. I love everything about it. This is another high grade, I'm giving this ensemble an 8.6/10. 

The Board

Like any tournament the past 3 years he's entered, Scottie comes in as the favorite by a wide margin. It's justified everywhere, but I'm not sure if there's a tournament out there where it's more warranted than this one. By many statistics, this is the course where his strengths are accentuated the most. You need a complete game to win here. You need length off the tee and you've got to be good with mid to long irons. This isn't a birdie-fest either, so scrambling and ability to get it in from around the greens is huge too. All of that screams Scottie.

That said, this is also one of tracks that suits Rory best as well. He has an edge on everybody when it comes to long golf courses where you need to fly it high and stop it on a dime. 

Ultimately, I think this is the week where we finally get a duel between these two down the stretch and it's Scottie who comes out on top. Chalk as hell, but there are better courses out there to swerve these two on.

The Card

Scottie to Win +335, Top 10 -136

Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy to Win +190

Rory to Win (without Scottie) +820

Big Guns -112 (Scheffler/McIlroy/Fleetwood/Schauffele/Henley/Fitzpatrick/Matsuyama/Morikawa) vs The Field - Too tough a test to not trust a big dog will take it down.

Jake Knapp To Win +3800/Top 5 +590/Top 10 +260/Top 20 +126 - This guy is playing unreal golf and his stellar results don't even reflect it yet. Top 10 in each of his last 4 (and T-11 in the event before that stretch). Those 4 fields were no punching bags either. Genesis, Pebble, Scottsdale, and Torrey.

Jake Knapp 1st Round Leader +3900 - Scottie has had a case of the Thursdays, so may be smart to layer in a bunch of 1RL's with guys you like before the big dog shows up.

Shane Lowry To Win +4700/Top 10 +300 - I know the guy just had his heart ripped out (again), but this isn't some flash in the pan that lost his only chance to keep his card. He'll bounce back. Kinda insane value for a guy who should've just won.

Joel Dahmen Top 10 +830 - Fun guy to root for. Has been trending up. Take the flyer.

Winner to Bogey or Worse Last Hole +250 - Little bit of a weird one but it's a tough hole that would encourage anyone with a multiple shot lead to play it safe and take a 5.