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Rico Bosco Lock Of The Week

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Full Week 14 Trends via OddsShark.com

Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois (FRI) (Ford Field) (MAC Championship)

Bowling Green is 1-4 SU in its last five games against Northern Illinois.

Northern Illinois is 39-4 SU in its last 43 games against its conference.

Northern Illinois is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games in December.

The total has gone under in four of Northern Illinois’s last five games in Week 14.

Bowling Green is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

Bowling Green is 7-1 SU in its last eight games against its conference.

The total has gone under in Bowling Green’s last four games after losing the previous game in a match up.

Temple at Houston (AAC Championship)

Houston is 0-3 ATS in its last three games after a win.

Houston is 7-1 SU in its last eight games against its conference.

The total has gone under in Houston’s last four games after a win.

Temple is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.

Temple is 8-1 SU in its last nine games against its conference.

The total has gone under in three of Temple’s last four games in Week 14.

Southern Miss at Western Kentucky (CUSA Championship)

Western Kentucky is 11-0 SU in its last 11 games against its conference.

Western Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after winning the previous game in a match up.

The total has gone over in six of Western Kentucky’s last seven games.

Southern Miss is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games.

Southern Miss is 4-1 SU in its last five games after losing the previous game in a match up.

The total has gone over in four of Southern Miss’s last five games in December.

Florida vs Alabama (Georgia Dome) (SEC Championship)

Florida is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games against Alabama.

Alabama is 4-0 ATS in its last four games.

Alabama is 7-0 SU in its last seven games against its conference.

The total has gone under in 10 of Alabama’s last 13 games after winning the previous game in a match up.

Florida is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games after a loss.

Florida is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against its conference.

The total has gone under in Florida’s last five games.

San Diego State at Air Force (Mountain West Championship)

San Diego State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against Air Force.

Air Force is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games.

Air Force is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after losing as a favorite.

The total has gone over in Air Force’s last three games.

San Diego State is 8-0 SU and ATS in its last eight games.

San Diego State is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games against its conference.

The total has gone under in 14 of San Diego State’s last 20 games.

Stanford vs USC (Levi’s Stadium) (Pac-12 Championship)

Stanford is 5-2 SU in its last seven games against Southern Cal.

Southern Cal is 5-2 SU in its last seven games after an ATS win.

Southern Cal is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games after an ATS win.

The total has gone under in eight of Southern Cal’s last nine games in December.

Stanford is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games.

Stanford is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against its conference.

The total has gone under in Stanford’s last five games after an ATS loss.

Iowa vs Michigan State (Lucas Oil Stadium) (Big Ten Championship)

Iowa is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games against Michigan State.

Michigan State is 24-2 SU in its last 26 games against its conference.

Michigan State is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after an ATS win.

The total has gone over in four of Michigan State’s last five games after a win.

Iowa is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games after losing the previous game in a match up.

Iowa is 8-0 SU in its last eight games against its conference.

The total has gone under in five of Iowa’s last six games in December.

North Carolina vs Clemson (Bank of America Stadium) (ACC Championship)

The favored team is 4-0 ATS in its last four games in this match up.

North Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last six games against Clemson.

Clemson is 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight games in Week 14.

The total has gone over in six of Clemson’s last eight games after consecutive wins.

Clemson is 0-4 ATS in its last four games.

North Carolina is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four games after losing the previous game in a match up.

North Carolina is 8-0 SU in its last eight games against its conference.

The total has gone under in eight of North Carolina’s last 11 games after an ATS win.

Texas at Baylor

Texas is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games against Baylor.

Texas is 0-5 ATS in its last five games against Baylor.

Baylor is 6-0 SU and ATS in its last six games in December.

Baylor is 7-0 SU in its last seven games after a loss.

The total has gone over in five of Baylor’s last six games after an ATS loss.

Texas is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games after losing the previous game in a match up.

Texas is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games after a loss.

The total has gone over in Texas’s last three games.

Appalachian State @ South Alabama

Appy State 4-0 SU and ATS as road favorites in 2015

South Alabama 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS in nine games as home dogs since 2012

Appy State 12-1 SU, 8-4-1 ATS past 13 conference games

South Alabama 2-10 ATS past dozen conference games

South Alabama is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games at home

Appalachian State is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road

 

-Welcome everyone to a new weekly feature for Barstool presented by OddsShark.com . Each week you can find my lock of the week, as well as some other picks, questions, tips, leans, or for some of you guys who hate me .. fades. I expect this as a great feature for anyone who listens to the pick em podcasts, as well as anyone known to throw a unit or two on a game. Just one pick this week, but as mentioned OddsShark.com has some GREAT stuff on there website, which you should all check out before every pick you make.

Game :

Appalachian State vs South Alabama

Rico lock of the Week : App State -17.5

Appalachian State is one the best teams no one talks about on the mid major landscape. 9-2 with their only losses vs #1 Clemson, and a damn good Arkansas State team.

Trends can tell you a lot about how a team is expected to perform, especially in certain situations . Some ones I loved ( via my friends at OddsShark.com ) were :

-App State 4-0 SU and ATS as road favorites in 2015

-App State is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road

-South Alabama 2-10 ATS past dozen conference games

-South Alabama is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games at home

Some other things I like, App State has never trailed at the half. Tells me a lot about how these coaches, and player prepare for a game. After the preparation, comes the execution and App State has executed with the best of them . Their road wins have been 49-0, 37-3, 59-14, and 47-20.

The main reason I love this pick is App State ground attack and ground defense. App State makes a living on the ground. 255.9 per game (6th best in the country). Averaging 5.5 a clip (carry) (10th best in the country).

App State matches their ground attack with controlling the ground on defense, allowing 135.3 (29th in country) per game. Amazingly, they gave up just 42 yards last week on the ground.

Final points: South Alabama QB Cody Clements is day to day with a shoulder injury, and even with him on his best day I would trust App State to cover. They will control the clock , control the pace of play, control the line of scrimmage, and Rico’s favorite – control the score. Additionally, the trends point HEAVILY in App State’s favorite in this kind of road game spot, and against S.Alabama given their past performance at home.

App State wins 38-3.

For all stats and trends check out OddsShark.com & follow @Rico_Bosco on twitter for all my other picks.