Welcome back to Rico Bosco’s “Bosco Bets” via my friends at OddsShark.com . HUGE week of NFL games, College Bowl Games, and Christmas Day NBA games. Here are those trends :
NFL Week 16 Trends
NCAA Football Bowl Games:
Wednesday 12/23 Bowls :
4:30 pm – Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State (8-4) vs Northern Illinois (8-5) (OddsShark.com odds here)
8:00 pm – GoDaddy Bowl: Bowling Green (10-3) vs Georgia Southern (8-4) (OddsShark.com odds here)
Thursday 12/24 Bowls :
2:00 pm – Bahamas Bowl: Middle Tennessee (7-5) vs Western Michigan (7-5) (OddsShark.com odds here)
8:00pm – Hawaii Bowl: San Diego State (10-3) vs Cincinnati (7-6) (OddsShark.com odds here)
Saturday 12/26 Bowls :
11:00 am – St. Petersburg Bowl: Connecticut (6-6) vs Marshall (9-3) (OddsShark.com odds here)
2:00 pm – Sun Bowl: Miami (8-4) vs Washington State (8-4) (OddsShark.com odds here)
2:20 pm – Heart of Dallas Bowl: Washington (6-6) vs Southern Mississippi (9-4) (OddsShark.com odds here)
3:30 pm – Pinstripe Bowl: Duke (7-5) vs Indiana (6-6) (OddsShark.com odds here)
5:45 pm – Independence Bowl: Virginia Tech (6-6) vs Tulsa (6-6) (OddsShark.com odds here)
9:15 pm – Foster Farms Bowl: Nebraska (5-7) vs UCLA (8-4) (OddsShark.com odds here)
NBA Christmas Day Trends :
The following records are from the 1993-94 season onward and reflect each team’s record when they play on Christmas Day:
Overall : Away Team is 25-40 SU, 30-35 ATS . The Over/Under is 26-34-5.
Pelicans (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 OU) at Heat (9-2 SU,6-5 ATS, 2-9 OU)
Dwyane Wade Averaging 26.4 points, 6.4 assists and 6 rebounds in 8 Christmas games
Bulls (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, 2-6-1 O/U) at Thunder (4-3 SU,4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U)
Derrick Rose averaging 22.3 points, 6.3 assists and 3.3 rebounds in 3 Xmas games Kevin Durant averaging 31.8 points, 4.6 assists and 6.4 rebounds in 5 Xmas games Westbrook averaging 20.4 points, 6.8 assists and 7.6 rebounds in 5 Xmas games
Cavs (3-2 SU,2-3 ATS,1-4 O/U) at Warriors (2-2 SU,1-3 ATS,2-2 O/U)
LeBron averaging 26.4 points, 8 assists and 7 rebounds in 8 Xmas games Curry averaging only 9.25 points, 8.25 assists and 6 rebounds in 4 Xmas games
Spurs (2-4 SU,3-3 ATS,2-4 O/U) at Rockets (3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS,2-2-2 O/U)
Duncan averaging 17 points, 4.3 assists and 12.3 rebounds in 3 Xmas games Harden averaging 23.5 points, 4.25 assists and 5 rebounds in 4 Xmas games
Clippers (3-2 SU,4-1 ATS,3-2 O/U) at Lakers (6-11 SU,9-8 ATS, 5-10-2 O/U) Chris Paul averaging 18.8 points, 7.2 assists and 3.8 rebounds in 5 Xmas games Kobe Bryant averaging 27.9 points, 5.4 assists and 6.1 rebounds in 7 Xmas games Full NBA trends via OddsShark.com –
Welcome Back and Merry Christmas ! Happy to report, although likely to piss off the comment section, the kick off to Bowl Season has resulted in more units to the YTD total. Off to a 6-1 start for +18.6 units. Full recaps of Bowl picks/prior write ups can be found here.
Before diving into the Bowls and my picks, here’s some quick odds and ends :
-If you want to go against the chalk (Carolina) as far as winning the NFC, the OddsShark.com current odds stand : Arizona (+250), Seattle (+450), and Green Bay (+500). Carolina looks great, but all of those numbers seem to be higher than what the money line would be against them in a matchup, so if you have a team you think can upset them, now would be the time to grab it rather than waiting for a the week of in my opinion anyway. – With that said if you’re a fan of chalk, the current odds for Super Bowl 50 are New England (+350) and Carolina (+400).
– Pretty remarkable that Steph Curry averages only 9.25 points a game during his 4 Christmas day games. Will be interesting to see the Golden State line vs Cleveland when it comes out, as well as his total points player prop, got to think he’s going to explode. He sure as hell is due…on Christmas anyway.
-On to the Bowls :
12/24 – San Diego State -1 vs Cincinatti – *** LOCK OF THE WEEK -***
It was recently announced that Cincy veteran QB Gunner Kiel will not make the trip to Hawaii. The Bearcats will start Freshman Hayden Moore. Moore was lights out (557 passing yards and 4 TD’s) in a shootout vs Memphis back in September, but hasn’t had action since 11/20 vs USF where they took a 65-27 beating. Moore’s passing totals for the year are 114 for 195 (58.5 %) with 9 TD’s and 8 interceptions. San Diego State will likely be without starter Maxwell Smith, even though he’s trying to suit up despite the ACL injury. Redshirt Freshman Christian Chapman is likely to go as he did in the Mountain West Championship game, where he earned Offensive MVP honors.
The main storyline here is San Diego State’s excellent defense. In all of College Football they are one of only 8 teams with Top 25 Defenses in terms of Rushing Yards Allowed and Passing Yards allowed (Rush Rank/Pass Rank) : Alabama (1st/20th), Wisconsin (3rd/5th), Boston College (4th/24th), San Diego State (10th/12th) , Florida (13th/7th), Michigan (17th/2nd), Ohio State (23rd/9th), and Clemson (24th/6th).
The Aztecs hold opponents to 113.8 on the ground and 182.4 in the air. Combine that with the nation’s 6th best sack percentage (9%), and sixth highest turnover margin (+1.2 per game), and you can clearly see Moore will have his hands full while taking on this team. Donnell Pumphrey (1554 rushing yards), and Chase Price (940 rushing yards) dominate the nation’s 11th best ground attack (241.1 yards per game).The Aztecs call 71% of their plays on the ground and have made a living on wearing down their opponents. If Cincinnati thinks this is going to be an up and down war, they are mistaken. Rocky Long has this Aztec team disciplined, and playing the best ball in the country that no one has noticed. Cincinnati’s rush D allows 5.2 yards per carry (#112th) , and 199.3 yards per game (94th).
Not being noticed brings me to my last point. My favorite Christmas movie is It’s a Wonderful Life. It’s the story of an underappreciated family man George Bailey who always puts others in front of himself, which throughout the film puts him in some tough spots. One of those tough spots becomes too much for him to take and almost leads to George giving up his own life. Luckily, he is shown how valuable he was to so many people and how different their lives would be if it wasn’t for his generosity. George decides he wants to live again and is bailed out of that tough spot by all the people he helped along the way. They rejoice together at the end. Call it a stretch, but San Diego State is George Bailey. They are under appreciated, yet they just keep doing what they have to , to move on. It is now the crossroads of their season. They can decide, “we had a good run, won the conference, made a bowl, etc” or they can say “we’re going to do it one more time, set the school record for wins, and complete a dream season.” A Wonderful season if you will. I’m willing to bet there is NOTHING that can stop the Aztecs at this point. They’ve come too far, they’ve helped each other too much, and they deserve to celebrate with their teammates at the end like George Bailey did with his friends.
To : all your families, , my coworkers at Barstool, Kevin McAllister & The South Bend Shovel Slayer, everyone who doesn’t say Happy Holidays, the staff of D’Jais in Belmar, Samantha Ponder, Dominick the Donkey, Lee Corso, my future wife Tiffani Thiessen, all of Western Kentucky (mainly Brandon Doughty), cops, fireman, nurses, those defending the country, and most importantly The Rico Riders led by Hank Lockwood…because without all of you Riders, this wouldn’t nearly be as much fun ,
Remember “no man is a failure who has friends.”
Hee Haw and Merry Christmas,
Last Week : 4-1 on Bowl Picks including lock of the week. Total Record of featured “Bosco Bets” picks : 4-3 YTD
CFB YTD: +61.2 units College Football YTD, (6-1 +18.6 on Bowls), 9-4 YTD College Basketball via Twitter . For all stats and trends check out OddsShark.com & follow @Rico_Bosco on twitter for all my other picks.