It was a great weekend on the pitch for us. Even through the comments about me "not knowing anything about soccer" and "you wouldn't know the difference between a Real Madrid game and Real World episode" we went 8-2, +5.95 units. That moves us to 43-41-2, -1.59 units on the 2020 campaign.
Tottenham -160: I do want to point out that I am a Spurs supporter before I begin, but I think this line is off by about 40 cents. West Ham just isn't a very good team at the moment, especially when they don't play at home. The Hammers have scored just above 1 xG on the road while allowing 2.2 xG. Tottenham is rounding into form and I think they will be the team that benefited the most from the break due to their absurd amount of injuries and having more practice time with Mouhrino. Dele Ali returns today for the Spurs and if they want to keep their European competition hopes alive, they have to win this game. Tottenham dominated West Ham earlier in the season and would've won 3-1 if it weren't for a 90 + 6 goal for West Ham. Now they get the Hammers at home. I expect a blowout, but then again, lads, they are Tottenham.
Athletic Bilbao/Barcelona u3 (-125): Lets take a look at Athletic Bilbao xG against the top 4 clubs in La Liga:
Atletico Madrid: 0.52, 0.45
Real Madrid: 0.38
This team just doesn't score against top tier competition. Barca's offense hasn't been anything spectacular since they've returned from break and Bilbao's middle of the pack defense combined with them parking the bus should keep this game 1-0 or 2-0. These two played earlier this season and the result was 1-0.
Genoa +130: I think we are getting some value here based on the early season result between Parma & Genoa (Parma 5-1). The xG on that game was 2.32-1.22, so nothing outrageous. Now, Parma travels to Genoa after a truly awful performance this past weekend. Parma drew Torino, but the xG on the game was 2.99-0.34. Their pre-COVID lockdown slide continued and I think it continues in this one. Genoa is coming off a win against AC Milan, so a letdown may be in place, but I still think they are a much better team than Parma. Genoa is still in a regulation battle, while Parma sits pretty in 9th, but according to expected points, Genoa should be 4 points ahead of Parma in the table.
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